Possible Price Reversal point as pre-NFP manipulation point

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
This is what I see. Structure of this 4H downtrend suggests that 1.10000 is at a highly probable reversal point. NFP is the booster that would take price to this level quicker than expected. While its my naivety to expect such a swift move within a couple of 4H candles, its NFP day. Nevertheless the price is expected to be within the blue area for the foreseeable future.

I expect the price to:
a) Either move towards this reversal point before NFP and make a sharp move downwards as the news hits the market
b) make a downwards move before NFP and make sharp move upwards to hit the zone soon after the news.

So depending on the pre-NFP price movement, the rectangle zone marked in red will either be my entry point or the target.

Marked in light blue is the range below and above the projected trendline . Any movement outside the range, I will be on the sidelines. In which case I will be back to the drawing board.

What are your thoughts?
Pity. Missed my entry zone by 10 pips or so.
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