JWagnerFXTrader
Short

1.1200 Break Clears Up The Wave Picture

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
3562 27 38
This drop below 1.1200 on the EURUSD             is significant and clears up the wave picture. Also, Sentiment has shifted significantly from last week to today. Sentiment went from 70% short last week after FOMC to now sitting at 60% short.

Last Tuesday, June 16, we highlighted 2 higher probability options which called for shorter term bullish moves. (see "EURUSD Triangle Thrust Before FOMC?"). Now that those bullish moves have exhausted AND since we have broken below 1.1200, the expanded flat option is now the higher probability wave picture.

This suggests a move lower in 5 waves from the June 18 high that likely terminates in the 1.09-1.10 region.

At that point, in my opinion, the EURUSD             becomes a compelling long trade with a good risk:reward ratio. Since this count calls for us to be in a circle b wave, that means we'll need a circle c wave higher that likely exceeds 1.1500.

In the meantime, continue to look for USD strength.

Comments and competing wave counts are welcome.
i do not understand all waves and circles as well as you do, however you chart makes sense to me! Take a look, at mine! :)
SD Principles EurUsd OUTLOOK
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO technical_trader_sour
Sorry for the late response - I was on a family vacation for the past week. We were contributing to Mickey the Mouse's kids college fund...

The Elliott Wave analysis is like a GPS system or latitude/longitude. It provides you an indication of where you are at in the trend. Even if you don't know how to analyze with EW yourself, it would be beneficial in my opinion, to know how to read the labels.

This week's sell off and subsequent rebound higher is playing out as originally assessed. The 1.0815 level is key here. 1.1290 is a key level (the June 19 low) to help solidify the low. Once I re-acquaint myself with the charts, I'll send an update to the community.

+1 Reply
Yes, the EURUSD price is falling in a big way.

Here is my analysis from 8 days ago. I also have 1.102 as a buy area:

Enough room for a EURUSD downtrend until July 2015
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ChartArt ChartArt
My chart embedded:

Enough room for a EURUSD downtrend until July 2015
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Great retest of the 50 EMA and pivot point just now. I'm short from 1.12 with my target just above S1 should be a good trade!
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Good luck Hellborn!
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Great analysis once again. Am definitely watching this one. Am going to have to be patient, and fight my usual temptation to jump in too soon!
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Thank you for the kind words David. Have a great day!
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Great , thanks, usual caveats about me being a beginner etc but it makes absolute sense to me - the circle wave C higher would complete an ending diagonal of wave C of 4 of C at higher degrees imho. Thanks for your effort JW
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