1.1200 Break Clears Up The Wave Picture

This drop below 1.1200 on the EURUSD is significant and clears up the wave picture. Also, Sentiment has shifted significantly from last week to today. Sentiment went from 70% short last week after FOMC to now sitting at 60% short.

Last Tuesday, June 16, we highlighted 2 higher probability options which called for shorter term bullish moves. (see "EURUSD Triangle Thrust Before FOMC?"). Now that those bullish moves have exhausted AND since we have broken below 1.1200, the expanded flat option is now the higher probability wave picture.

This suggests a move lower in 5 waves from the June 18 high that likely terminates in the 1.09-1.10 region.

At that point, in my opinion, the EURUSD becomes a compelling long trade with a good risk:reward ratio. Since this count calls for us to be in a circle b wave, that means we'll need a circle c wave higher that likely exceeds 1.1500.

In the meantime, continue to look for USD strength.

Comments and competing wave counts are welcome.