Last Tuesday, June 16, we highlighted 2 higher probability options which called for shorter term moves. (see "EURUSD Triangle Thrust Before FOMC?"). Now that those moves have exhausted AND since we have broken below 1.1200, the expanded flat option is now the higher probability wave picture.
This suggests a move lower in 5 waves from the June 18 high that likely terminates in the 1.09-1.10 region.
At that point, in my opinion, the EURUSD becomes a compelling long trade with a good risk:reward ratio. Since this count calls for us to be in a circle b wave, that means we'll need a circle c wave higher that likely exceeds 1.1500.
In the meantime, continue to look for USD strength.
Comments and competing wave counts are welcome.
The Elliott Wave analysis is like a GPS system or latitude/longitude. It provides you an indication of where you are at in the trend. Even if you don't know how to analyze with EW yourself, it would be beneficial in my opinion, to know how to read the labels.
This week's sell off and subsequent rebound higher is playing out as originally assessed. The 1.0815 level is key here. 1.1290 is a key level (the June 19 low) to help solidify the low. Once I re-acquaint myself with the charts, I'll send an update to the community.