JWagnerFXTrader
Short

1.1200 Break Clears Up The Wave Picture

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
3562 27 38
This drop below 1.1200 on the EURUSD             is significant and clears up the wave picture. Also, Sentiment has shifted significantly from last week to today. Sentiment went from 70% short last week after FOMC to now sitting at 60% short.

Last Tuesday, June 16, we highlighted 2 higher probability options which called for shorter term bullish moves. (see "EURUSD Triangle Thrust Before FOMC?"). Now that those bullish moves have exhausted AND since we have broken below 1.1200, the expanded flat option is now the higher probability wave picture.

This suggests a move lower in 5 waves from the June 18 high that likely terminates in the 1.09-1.10 region.

At that point, in my opinion, the EURUSD             becomes a compelling long trade with a good risk:reward ratio. Since this count calls for us to be in a circle b wave, that means we'll need a circle c wave higher that likely exceeds 1.1500.

In the meantime, continue to look for USD strength.

Comments and competing wave counts are welcome.
rick.alter.35
a year ago
nice ..cLarity!!FINALLY!
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO rick.alter.35
a year ago
Indeed - these last couple of days of chop were tiring!
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YuzukiChan
a year ago
not gonna happen.
-1 Reply
JWagnerFXTrader PRO YuzukiChan
a year ago
Yuzuki - what does your analysis show?
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Yahia.Awes YuzukiChan
a year ago
That kind of comment requires clarification!
+1 Reply
YuzukiChan YuzukiChan
a year ago
Here's my related idea:
Fiber enters D
+1 Reply
JWagnerFXTrader PRO YuzukiChan
a year ago
Much better. As you depict, expanded flats many times turn into running flats as you suggest. It appears prices may have a one or two more sets of 4-5 waves to unwind to the downside first. Thank you for sharing.
+2 Reply
YuzukiChan JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
Exactly.
-1 Reply
Yahia.Awes YuzukiChan
a year ago
I am not an elliotan and I feel happy not being it. This is a good example, too much different views... Anyway I see EURUSD trading in a cup, with resistances here. If we break out those resistances, it might rally, if we break down which is looks like it is going to happen. I think we will see lower before we see the higher highs.
snapshot
+2 Reply
JWagnerFXTrader PRO Yahia.Awes
a year ago
Your view of EW is correct.

Too many views - yes there will always be multiple counts...some look right. Psychological studies prove we bias our views so I'm interested in counts I may have overlooked. Then, I aspire to trade when multiple views are lined up in the same direction OR if there is a strong risk:reward ratio trade.

That does look like a cup for sure. Notional volume of trades accelerated at the bottom of the cup, then decelerated as we approach the handle. Nice catch on the TA front!
+1 Reply
Melchorex YuzukiChan
a year ago
JAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA In your face!
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1DAYUMAY YuzukiChan
a year ago
turns out it did, and you were wrong
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Welshman99
a year ago
Great , thanks, usual caveats about me being a beginner etc but it makes absolute sense to me - the circle wave C higher would complete an ending diagonal of wave C of 4 of C at higher degrees imho. Thanks for your effort JW
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Welshman99
a year ago
Hi Welshman - no need to bring the usual caveats. I'll remember you!

Would you mind taking a snapshot and inserting it into the comments? That will allow me to see it exactly as you see it.

Thank you!
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Welshman99 JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
Ok have just quickly created this snapshot so the idea of a long C wave fits very nicely.....
snapshot
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Welshman99
a year ago
Excellent - thank you for the snapshot.

What you have listed is feasible ... in EW anything though improbable, is still possible.

2 things stand out to me:

1) the purple 3 as you have noted looks like a clean 5 to me on a 4hr chart. Therefore, wave 4 overlaps wave 1 which violates a rule.

2) Also, the red 'b' wave typically retraces no more than 1.382 x wave a in an expanded flat correction. In your image, red wave b is quite large, so the look isn't ideal.

Here are a couple options as I see it:

EURUSD Finishes Wave "X"


Learning EW takes trial and error in the beginning while watching others. Good shot!
+1 Reply
Welshman99 JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
thank you for your feedback it's really helpful. I've relabelled another alternate which I think fits. I thought that the exception to the 4 overlap rule was valid in a ED?
snapshot
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Welshman99
a year ago
Yes, that is a better example of an extended 3rd wave.

Yes, diagonals may overlap (wave 1 & 4). However, diagonals carve out as 3-3-3-3-3 and only appear in wave 1, 5, A, C. Impulses carve as 5-3-5-3-5.

Therefore, when you look internally, what is labeled as purple 3 on a shorter time frame looks like a clean 5 wave affair. Since diagonals are 3-3-3-3-3 and since one of the waves looks like a 5, it doesn't appear to fit.

As you have it labeled, I would agree purple 1 is a 3 wave, purple 3 is 5 wave, and purple 5 looks like a 3. Therefore, take a look at wave combinations that get you 3-3-5-3-3. Me thinks...3-3-5 (flat)-3 (x)-3 (zig-zag)

Sometime, you have to 'force' counts in, but start with what looks natural.
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DavidRoberts
a year ago
Great analysis once again. Am definitely watching this one. Am going to have to be patient, and fight my usual temptation to jump in too soon!
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO DavidRoberts
a year ago
Thank you for the kind words David. Have a great day!
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Hellborn
a year ago
Great retest of the 50 EMA and pivot point just now. I'm short from 1.12 with my target just above S1 should be a good trade!
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Hellborn
a year ago
Good luck Hellborn!
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ChartArt
a year ago
Yes, the EURUSD price is falling in a big way.

Here is my analysis from 8 days ago. I also have 1.102 as a buy area:

Enough room for a EURUSD downtrend until July 2015
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ChartArt ChartArt
a year ago
My chart embedded:

Enough room for a EURUSD downtrend until July 2015
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right
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i do not understand all waves and circles as well as you do, however you chart makes sense to me! Take a look, at mine! :)
SD Principles EurUsd OUTLOOK
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO technical_trader_sour
a year ago
Sorry for the late response - I was on a family vacation for the past week. We were contributing to Mickey the Mouse's kids college fund...

The Elliott Wave analysis is like a GPS system or latitude/longitude. It provides you an indication of where you are at in the trend. Even if you don't know how to analyze with EW yourself, it would be beneficial in my opinion, to know how to read the labels.

This week's sell off and subsequent rebound higher is playing out as originally assessed. The 1.0815 level is key here. 1.1290 is a key level (the June 19 low) to help solidify the low. Once I re-acquaint myself with the charts, I'll send an update to the community.

+1 Reply
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