Amr-Sadek

EURUSD 6 Mar 2024 W10 - Intraday Analysis -US ADP / Powell day 1

FOREXCOM:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Mar 2024 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

  1. 4H
  2. 15m


Note: Nothing changed since yesterday except 15m Sub INT turned Bullish aligning with 15m INT and Swing Bullish


4H Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bullish
  • Swing Pullback Phase




2.

  • After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
  • As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
  • Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
  • Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.




3.

  • After Bullish iBOS confirming Swing Pullback Phase started, We are expecting INT Pullback.
  • Price reached the 4H Supply as expected and showed solid reaction from there. This reaction is starting the Bullish INT Structure Pullback.
  • We didn't do a Bearish CHoCH to confirm INT High yet. So, there is a probability that price could tap into the CHoCH.
  • Also we tapped into a Daily Demand (Not a HP zone) which is currently containing price.
  • As the 4H Swing is bearish, the Swing pullback could be over after reaching the 4H Supply, Bearish CHoCH will be the initial weak conformation and a Bearish iBOS will be the solid confirmation for that scenario.
  • Other scenario is a deeper Swing Pullback and 4H INT will stay Bullish to facilitate that view.



15m Chart Analysis - Out


15m Chart Analysis - In


1.

  • Swing Bullish
  • INT Bullish
  • INT INT Bullish
  • INT Continuation Phase

2.

  • Swing turned bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
  • INT Structure still holding bullish adding to the expectation that the 4H Pullback is going to be deeper which will require the 15m to stay bullish.

3.

  • As we had a long period ranging within the INT Structure. We had formed Sub Internal Structure which turned bullish.
  • Sub INT structure aligned with INT and Swing to continue bullish. Still i expect price to target the Weak INT High.
  • Overall price is ranging and no momentum in the market which means that the market players are waiting for a catalyst today from US ADP and Powell Testifies today and tomorrow.