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EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL UPDATE+TECHNICAL TARGET | SHORT SETUP 🔔

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FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
EUR/USD Forecast: Euro recovery likely to be capped at 1.1040

EUR/USD has regained its traction after dropping to two-week lows.
The pair could find it difficult to clear the 1.1040 hurdle.
Eyes on Russia-Ukraine talks, US consumer confidence data.
EUR/USD has reversed its direction after having touched its weakest level in two weeks at 1.0944 on Monday. The pair is holding above 1.1000 in the early European session but it could find it difficult to break above the 1.1040 resistance.

The improving market mood is not allowing the greenback to gather strength early Tuesday and helping EUR/USD clings to its recovery gains.

Markets are hopeful that Russia and Ukraine will make progress toward a cease-fire at Tuesday's talks. Reflecting the risk-positive market environment, the Euro Stoxx 600 Index is rising more than 1% on a daily basis and US stock index futures are up between 0.2% and 0.3%.

In case the headlines coming out of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations convince market participants that there will not be a further escalation of the conflict, risk flows could continue to provide a boost to the shared currency.

In the second half of the day, the Conference Board will release the US Consumer Confidence report for March. Several FOMC policymakers, including NY Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, will be delivering speeches as well.

The latest remarks from Fed officials fueled expectations of a 50 basis points rate hike in May and triggered a rally in the US T-bond yields. The fundamental outlook highlighted by the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB should continue to favour the dollar over the euro, suggesting that the pair's recovery attempts are likely to remain technical in the near term
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