We indeed have a retracement which was quite impressive and it did retrace 61.8%. Ordinarily that would be sufficient and we would have expected a new impulsive cycle up.
However, in looking at the with it low at 1.083 on 27th May suggest that it is not complete and only forms first part of the retracement.
Subsequent price bounce has also been of overlapping waves and lacking impulsive structure though at time it almost feels like it. Now we are close to 88.6% retrace to the upside of previous decline. I think it is again an abc formation which could be close to completion. If correct then another much stronger decline in the form of impulsive wave C with 5 minor waves could develop.
Please see the earlier chart referred to above for all the background details, but here is the technical summary:
1. We have retraced 88.6% of the previous decline.
2. The retracement lacks impulsive look with its overlapping waves suggesting that this is not a new cycle leg.
3. Based on the fib time ratio, we are in approax zone of 1.382 and 1.141 time the total time it took for 5 wave rise from major low in April to May high.
4. We also have some confluence.
5. Secondary divergence suggesting that today's thrust up which could make marginal new high around 1.14 might complete the move and set the scene for another short referred to above.
If correct then the he shorting zone is from anywhere up to 1.14 as the round number in the vicinity of other factors mentioned above.
Likely down side target:
could be retest of 1.08 but most likely
1.07 as it is an area of of the entire rise from April low to May high and gives us measured move that is length of wave (a) measured from high of wave (b) on my chart.
If all of the above holds then potential time symmetry projection suggest a low to form around 24th June 2015
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However, this trade still looks promising. What seems to be developing is a potential triangle which on completion with lead to next leg up to shorting zone.
Not sure if the time symmetry will hold. On Hourly it is suggesting on 17th June and H4 it is suggesting early next week.
Worth waiting for it as relatively low risk trade for strong down move in wave C might develop. Here are both charts.