DanV
Short

EURUSD - RETRACEMENT IN NEW BULLISH CYCLE - UPDATE

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
About a month ago, I published the chart of EURUSD             suggesting that shorting opportunity was available as a retracement in new bullish cycle.

We indeed have a zigzag retracement which was quite impressive and it did retrace 61.8%. Ordinarily that would be sufficient and we would have expected a new impulsive cycle up.

However, in looking at the zigzag with it low at 1.083 on 27th May suggest that it is not complete and only forms first part of the retracement.

Subsequent price bounce has also been of overlapping waves and lacking impulsive structure though at time it almost feels like it. Now we are close to 88.6% retrace to the upside of previous decline. I think it is again an abc zigzag formation which could be close to completion. If correct then another much stronger decline in the form of impulsive wave C with 5 minor waves could develop.

Please see the earlier chart referred to above for all the background details, but here is the technical summary:

1. We have retraced 88.6% of the previous decline.
2. The retracement lacks impulsive look with its overlapping waves suggesting that this is not a new bullish cycle leg.
3. Based on the fib time ratio, we are in approax zone of 1.382 and 1.141 time the total time it took for 5 wave rise from major low in April to May high.
4. We also have some pitchfork confluence.
5. Secondary RSI divergence suggesting that today's thrust up which could make marginal new high around 1.14 might complete the move and set the scene for another short referred to above.

If correct then the he shorting zone is from anywhere up to 1.14 as the round number in the vicinity of other factors mentioned above.

Likely down side target:
could be retest of 1.08 but most likely
1.07 as it is an area of 78.6% retracement of the entire rise from April low to May high and gives us AB=CD measured move that is length of wave (a) measured from high of wave (b) on my chart.

If all of the above holds then potential time symmetry projection suggest a low to form around 24th June 2015

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
kjzsbtby
2 years ago
I concur with your analisis. But I think it will take a little bit to scorch down.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD kjzsbtby
2 years ago
Thanks for your comment.

Though I don't understand what you mean by "But I think it will take a little bit to scorch down".

The potential shorting zone is an area and not exact level so it might accommodate your view.
+1 Reply
Nickmail
2 years ago
ok! what about AUD/USD
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DanV MOD Nickmail
2 years ago
Hi thanks for your question.

Both AU and NZ have been very weak of late but are in process of forming respective bottom of the cycle I think.
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Nickmail DanV
2 years ago
OK ! finally what about this? -
weekly USD is going deep..need a new contracts before next RALLY
+1 Reply
DanV MOD Nickmail
2 years ago
Yes quite possible once we have the retracement completed or retest of the broken line as you suggest.
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Looks good I think. B rally character is there.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thanks. I agree.
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TradingSuccess
2 years ago
Looks good, it may occur if this small ABCD Pattern is complete. If it will :)

EURUSD really possible ABCD Pattern!


But on the other hand, Daily chart:

snapshot
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bilk29
2 years ago
thanks
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DanV MOD bilk29
2 years ago
You are welcome
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YuzukiChan
2 years ago
Your (a) seems like a three. Can you elaborate on a smaller degree count within (a)?
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DanV MOD YuzukiChan
2 years ago
You are correct. Waves a and b can be zigzag or double zigzags or any other corrective combinations but wave c must have 5 waves.

So in this case if my interpretation is correct we have waves a and b zigzag, there fore now looking for 5 wave decline. IF we do not get that then there is more complex correction in progress.
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Thank you for the chart.
I would rather put red wave (1) and red wave (2), where blue wave 1 and 2 are, because red wave (4) is a little to small to red wave (2).
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Still good analysis.
Reply
DanV MOD ew-forecast
a year ago
Thanks for your comments.

The reason for these labels are that it seems to suggest leading diagonal Wave A in which wave 4 is normally small in comparison.

Now looking for retracement to complete Wave B and for larger Wave C to commence to the upside.
Reply
beamer
a year ago
Nice one! I'm glad that I'm not alone :)

EUR: The end of bearish cycle
+1 Reply
DanV MOD beamer
a year ago
Thanks for your chart an comment. Nice charts.

Indeed you are not alone.

Though broadly, there are opposing views on this one which is likely to continue till we have some clarity.

So watching closely.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD
a year ago
UPDATE: the decline of the high as not developed as expected.

However, this trade still looks promising. What seems to be developing is a potential triangle which on completion with lead to next leg up to shorting zone.

Not sure if the time symmetry will hold. On Hourly it is suggesting on 17th June and H4 it is suggesting early next week.

Worth waiting for it as relatively low risk trade for strong down move in wave C might develop. Here are both charts.
snapshot
snapshot
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DanV MOD
a year ago
Due to lack of follow through to the downside from recent high, I have change the earlier idea of minor triangle in between to now rising wedge suggesting possible stab at 1.145-1.15 before reversing. Here is an updated chart.
snapshot
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DanV MOD DanV
a year ago
Still overall outlook has not changed.
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go for long

ALL IN =D
+1 Reply
DanV MOD
a year ago
Please note new updated chart published today.
EURUSD - MIGHT BE ABOUT TO RESUME IT
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