I first proposed the USD big rally was coming early 2021. The TA for the big rally was strong and the fundies news for the USD was terrible. Long dollar was like a lepar trade. Even when I spoke about it online I could feel people looking at me funny through the screen.
USD has went on to become the top performing risk adjusted asset since this time. And we might be getting into the stronger and faster part of the move (Albeit, maybe the end of the move also). This would be the case if we were in a strong wave 5 of an Elliot decline.
Let's look at the case for the wave structure:
First decline and retracement are obvious. One additional comment is it would have been far from obvious at the time, and this makes a reasonable case for the flat wave 2 correction.
2013 - 2014 are clear trend years for the USD. This was when I got into trading and this USD move (Mainly short AUDUSD) made me think I must be a genius. I was doing really well in this move with simple fib breakout strategies. Was hard to lose in this move if you had a short bias on XXXUSD.
What came after corrected my mistaken genius status. In 2015 we went into a range. I didn't think the range could last that long - after all, USD only go up...
But the range lasted long enough to make me have to learn more strategies. Indeed, we'd hold that trading range most of my Forex trading life.
This range would end on a 38% retracement with a messy range with false breakouts. Which is 101 for Elliot wave 4.
If we have 1,2,3 and 4 in we'd be due wave 5. Things we'd look for in wave 5 would be the breakout having nominal pullbacks. The trend getting stronger and stronger. It getting to the point it's very hard to beat the underlying trading (This is why passive investing becomes popular late into a cycle). We have the early stages of this in. A strong breakout which currently has nominal corrections. If this is wave 5 we'd expect to see this become stronger and stronger until everyone is talking about the long USD trade. It goes from lepar to fan favourite.
If we're in wave 5 this will typically extend to around the 161 extension. Which comes in around 0.85 - 0.90. Sometimes the extension can overshoot to the 220 fib but these are rarer and while it needs to be kept in mind for the risk considerations of shorting the USD into the boom, the natural first big target area is just before the 161 around 0.900.
If this move completes in the style of wave 5, we might enter into an epic USD crash after this leg is complete for the ABC correction. Then re-load for another dollar bull.
Target on EURUSD short is 0.900, which was first given here on TV around 1.1000.
USD has went on to become the top performing risk adjusted asset since this time. And we might be getting into the stronger and faster part of the move (Albeit, maybe the end of the move also). This would be the case if we were in a strong wave 5 of an Elliot decline.
Let's look at the case for the wave structure:
First decline and retracement are obvious. One additional comment is it would have been far from obvious at the time, and this makes a reasonable case for the flat wave 2 correction.
2013 - 2014 are clear trend years for the USD. This was when I got into trading and this USD move (Mainly short AUDUSD) made me think I must be a genius. I was doing really well in this move with simple fib breakout strategies. Was hard to lose in this move if you had a short bias on XXXUSD.
What came after corrected my mistaken genius status. In 2015 we went into a range. I didn't think the range could last that long - after all, USD only go up...
But the range lasted long enough to make me have to learn more strategies. Indeed, we'd hold that trading range most of my Forex trading life.
This range would end on a 38% retracement with a messy range with false breakouts. Which is 101 for Elliot wave 4.
If we have 1,2,3 and 4 in we'd be due wave 5. Things we'd look for in wave 5 would be the breakout having nominal pullbacks. The trend getting stronger and stronger. It getting to the point it's very hard to beat the underlying trading (This is why passive investing becomes popular late into a cycle). We have the early stages of this in. A strong breakout which currently has nominal corrections. If this is wave 5 we'd expect to see this become stronger and stronger until everyone is talking about the long USD trade. It goes from lepar to fan favourite.
If we're in wave 5 this will typically extend to around the 161 extension. Which comes in around 0.85 - 0.90. Sometimes the extension can overshoot to the 220 fib but these are rarer and while it needs to be kept in mind for the risk considerations of shorting the USD into the boom, the natural first big target area is just before the 161 around 0.900.
If this move completes in the style of wave 5, we might enter into an epic USD crash after this leg is complete for the ABC correction. Then re-load for another dollar bull.
Target on EURUSD short is 0.900, which was first given here on TV around 1.1000.
