DanV
Long

EURUSD - MIGHT BE ABOUT RESUME IT'S BULLISH CYCLE (UPDATE)

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
In my last chart I suggested that a possible ending diagonal might have form a low above 1.08350 which failed hence the flat correction of 3-3-5 in now ruled out.

However the overall larger time frame picture is not changed much in that since the May high price action is correcting the move of the March low and is not a resumption of bearish cycle. The main reason for this view that that the initial decline of May high is clearly a zigzag (ending at 1.0830) and not an impulsive 5 wave decline.

Therefore this suggest that once the correction is over, there will be a follow through of the move higher.

Having said that there are still 2 possibilities, both expected to resolve to the upside:

1. The we have double zigzag, the 1st ending in May (highlighted in chart) and upon a completion of rally high in June, we have now declined in what looks like double zigzag.
2. The second possibility is that we have more side way correction in the form of contracting triangle (abcde 3-3-3-3-3 configuration). If this is in play then still a rally towards the upper range of the triangle should develop.

Here are the technical summary:
1. Since May high, we appear to have double zigzag correction which is near completion.
2. We have retraced 61.8% Fib of the entire rise of the March low and approaching 66.67% (2/3rd Gann percentage) and 78.6% Fib retracement
3. Potential bullish RSI divergence.
4. In the proximity of the previous structure support.
5. If the Fib time symmetry holds then the anticipated low due in this time window.

Invalidation level to note is 1.07 (only for review to as new low below 1.06 would not necessarily alter the picture)

If the above plays out then the upside is anticipated to be either large wave 3 or C. AB=CD would give us approx target of around 1.18 or higher.

In case of triangle as second scenario, the upper range of would be around 1.13.

In both of the above, the nature of the rise will give further clues about which of the two possibilities is developing.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
DanV MOD
a year ago
Corresponding DXY chart on daily time frame.
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HiTech PRO
a year ago
I have same few, GBPUSD and EURUSD looks bearish, USDCHF bulish got GBPUSD to share
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HiTech PRO HiTech
a year ago
GBPUSD TO FORM A DOUBLE BOTTOM
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DanV MOD HiTech
a year ago
Hi, interesting chart. Thankyou for sharing.

GBPUSD am little unclear right now on price action. I think we could have retracement but might now be as deep as you suggest on your chart, though it could play out.

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OsamaAbouzeid
a year ago
Good analysis ,i am agree with you as well !
EURUSD _Three Drives Pattern Completion
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DanV MOD OsamaAbouzeid
a year ago
Thank you for sharing your chart.

Yes looks very interesting. Many be more short will enter before reversing.
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Mooncake
a year ago
I agree with you, my setup looks almost the same.
EURUSD Possible trendline bounce
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DanV MOD Mooncake
a year ago
Hi, thank you for your comment. Looks good.

Though if we get a breach of the trendline we might form a low further down and in that case the triangle would be ruled out. Then we will end up with just zigzag on completion of which a strong rally could be anticipated.
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FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Hello, thanks four your detailed analysis, i always follow your posts and learn very much from you.
Two months ago i posted an analysis saying this pair reached its bottom
EURUSD-is clearly changing trend - why dont we seet it?

Now i have the same view as an alternate count, the only thing that made me doubt was the labeling of first leg from 2015-03-17. It looks more like a zigzag. This is key because we could have this alternate count:

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DanV MOD FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Thank you for your comment.

At the time I too thought that wave 1 on my charts and wave (A) on your charts was a zigzag it might still be. However, when I checked on smaller time frame I noted that we do have 5 waves with 5th wave very extended making it look like a zigzag.

Secondly if we are suggesting this as wave 4 it it is now becoming very disproportionate to anything previously. This will get worse as I pointed bout that the initial decline of May high also is very clear zigzag, hence a correction. Unless this is part of ending diagonal wave 5 which could have 3-3-3-3-3 configuration in the form of falling wedge. I have not taken that into consideration for now but will keeping in the background.

So either more sideways action which would make matters worse for wave 4 or that we have ended 5 wave and are in new bullish cycle.

Further price action will help us clarify. Thanks to sharing your chart analysis.
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FullTimeTrader DanV
a year ago
Yes, i forgot to add that my alternate count is considering an ending diagonal, since we are starting a sequence of 3-3-3-(3-3) configuration
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DanV MOD FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Yes I understand. We will soon get some clarify on if that is likely.
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IvanLabrie PRO DanV
a year ago
This being a 4, agreed on proportional issues there.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Would be interesting to see a climactic decline followed by a sharp reversal today...Fib time points to this being an important date and my EURGBP chart calls for such action as well.
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FullTimeTrader IvanLabrie
a year ago
there was a dramatic decline on gold today, do you remember i was asking you about the correlation on gold and eurgbp?,mmmm something to consider in the future......your time fibs may be usefull next times
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
a year ago
RE EURGBP appears to be forming ending diagonal and is nearly complete. So I agree on that. Thanks.
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MikaGlogy
a year ago
Your analysis seems very convincing. I wonder if the euro reached its bottom. according to the weekly chart and fundamental analysis, it is possible that the numbers can turn the currency pair. what do you think? Thank you for your great contribution :)
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DanV MOD MikaGlogy
a year ago
Thank you for your comment.

Sometimes, when technicals suggest a possible turn, it is not always quite obvious as to what might act as a catalyst. It could be data numbers or political development. Yet at other times it only become known after the event.

So whilst looking for evidence of the turn on chart best to keep an open mind and caution.
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MikaGlogy DanV
a year ago
Thank you!
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DanV MOD MikaGlogy
a year ago
You are welcome
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johan.verm
a year ago
Good idea....ABC correction now after a possible 12345 Elliot ? Greetz....
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DanV MOD
a year ago
UPDATE: wave counts adjusted to take in to account the price decline from 7th July now looks more like and ending diagonal with clear RSI divergence. If correct then we could have a bullish week.
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G_Man DanV
a year ago
tracking this very closely, you think we could have bottomed already? I'm starting to wonder if that's the case
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DanV MOD G_Man
a year ago
Possibly it has. But keep in mind that the move up at present could either be towards the top of the triangle range or new bullish move higher.

Further price action would help clarify.
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G_Man DanV
a year ago
yep, we shall see, cheers
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DanV MOD
a year ago
UPDATE: We appear to have formed the anticipated low, however, it is lacking the impulsive 5 wave structure. Therefore, it could be developing second scenario that of contracting triangle. We might have the high for the week and retrace for the remainder.
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IvanLabrie PRO DanV
a year ago
I think so now as well.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
a year ago
The anticipated retrace could help clarify.
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