DanV
Long

EURUSD - MIGHT BE ABOUT RESUME IT'S BULLISH CYCLE (UPDATE)

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
In my last chart I suggested that a possible ending diagonal might have form a low above 1.08350 which failed hence the flat correction of 3-3-5 in now ruled out.

However the overall larger time frame picture is not changed much in that since the May high price action is correcting the move of the March low and is not a resumption of bearish cycle. The main reason for this view that that the initial decline of May high is clearly a zigzag (ending at 1.0830) and not an impulsive 5 wave decline.

Therefore this suggest that once the correction is over, there will be a follow through of the move higher.

Having said that there are still 2 possibilities, both expected to resolve to the upside:

1. The we have double zigzag , the 1st ending in May (highlighted in chart) and upon a completion of rally high in June, we have now declined in what looks like double zigzag .
2. The second possibility is that we have more side way correction in the form of contracting triangle (abcde 3-3-3-3-3 configuration). If this is in play then still a rally towards the upper range of the triangle should develop.

Here are the technical summary:
1. Since May high, we appear to have double zigzag correction which is near completion.
2. We have retraced 61.8% Fib of the entire rise of the March low and approaching 66.67% (2/3rd Gann percentage) and 78.6% Fib retracement
3. Potential bullish RSI divergence.
4. In the proximity of the previous structure support .
5. If the Fib time symmetry holds then the anticipated low due in this time window.

Invalidation level to note is 1.07 (only for review to as new low below 1.06 would not necessarily alter the picture)

If the above plays out then the upside is anticipated to be either large wave 3 or C. AB=CD would give us approx target of around 1.18 or higher.

In case of triangle as second scenario, the upper range of would be around 1.13.

In both of the above, the nature of the rise will give further clues about which of the two possibilities is developing.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
UPDATE: We appear to have formed the anticipated low, however, it is lacking the impulsive 5 wave structure. Therefore, it could be developing second scenario that of contracting triangle. We might have the high for the week and retrace for the remainder.
snapshot
Reply
I think so now as well.
Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
The anticipated retrace could help clarify.
Reply
UPDATE: wave counts adjusted to take in to account the price decline from 7th July now looks more like and ending diagonal with clear RSI divergence. If correct then we could have a bullish week.
snapshot
Reply
tracking this very closely, you think we could have bottomed already? I'm starting to wonder if that's the case
Reply
Possibly it has. But keep in mind that the move up at present could either be towards the top of the triangle range or new bullish move higher.

Further price action would help clarify.
Reply
yep, we shall see, cheers
Reply
Good idea....ABC correction now after a possible 12345 Elliot ? Greetz....
Reply
Your analysis seems very convincing. I wonder if the euro reached its bottom. according to the weekly chart and fundamental analysis, it is possible that the numbers can turn the currency pair. what do you think? Thank you for your great contribution :)
Reply
DanV MOD MikaGlogy
Thank you for your comment.

Sometimes, when technicals suggest a possible turn, it is not always quite obvious as to what might act as a catalyst. It could be data numbers or political development. Yet at other times it only become known after the event.

So whilst looking for evidence of the turn on chart best to keep an open mind and caution.
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
France
España
Italia
Polska
Türkiye
Россия
Brasil
Indonesia
Malaysia
ประเทศไทย
Việt Nam
日本
한국
简体
繁體
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out