Sokow

Week9: Correction really complete???

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Hello everybody,

its again time for the weekly checkup!

There is a small potential for wave 4 (in green) to be not just finished. Maybe wave (v) in red is just ( iii             ) and we will see a push higher.
If we break below the previous low (wave (iv)) we should see EURUSD             fall like a stone.

Lets take a look closer to the hourly charts. I have two possible scenarios where we would see a push higer.

The first one is the idea of an ending diagonal . We have seen another ending diagonal in wave (3) (in green) before.
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The other scenario is this of an running triangle where wave B runs higher than wave (3) (in green).
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Now to complete this idea lets take a look at the DXY             . There we have a breakout of the trendline and a divergence in MACD , which would stand for lower prices in EURUSD             .
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Fundamentals:
After we had some really bad economic news in the US the FED seems to be unsure about the change in bank rates which disappoints many people.
Bigger picture:

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Good morning everybody!

For me it looks like we have 5 waves down and starting our 3 waves correction.

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I was wrong with my last chart. Just a quick update. Pretty hard to forecast the end of the correction but now I can see a possible turning point.
We have hidden divergence in RSI (see babypips.com Divergence Cheat Sheet), are near the equality of wave a and c and have reached area of previous wave 4. This should be confirmed by a break out of the correction channel (green) otherwise its again something different ;-)

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As expected we got the strong move to the downside.

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Get ready for SHORT !!! We have a divergence in hourly, 4h and daily chart ... also the ending diagonal seems to be complete. Wait for break of trendline or break of ((4)) to confirm the ending diagonal.

Happing trading !!!

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mkgone Sokow
1. Wave seems to be finished now - what u think?
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No ... we have seen the completion of wave 4 and started now wave 5.

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Now we have to measure the new target.
I use a fibo for wave ((3)) and look at the 0.66 and 0.81 fibo retracement to get a target (like explained in Elliott Wave Principle from Frost & Prechter, p.88)

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Target hit!
We have reached a fibo cluster zone:
- 1.618 of the distance of wave A added to the end of wave B (left dashed line)
- 0.618 of the distance of wave 1 through 3 added to the end of wave 4 (right dashed line)

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Friends ... that was an amazing move. As I expected we got a strong move to the upside. This move has the potential to rise even higher.

Well done EURUSD ;)

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