after the very fast falling prices yesterday we had a really quick rebound BUT i think that this is just a rebound.
To be precise its just a 4th wave of the first BIG wave down.
So get ready for some more potential to the downside. This will be a very volatile second half of the year (the same applies for the US indices).
Best wishes and good luck,
The first impulse move to the down side is complete ( wave 1 in circle ) and now we should see a retracement (in 3 waves) to 1.11500 or 1.12 which is the 0.382 or 0.5 fibo retracement of wave 1 (in circle).
After that wave 3 should unfold and bring us closer to our target 1.02.
The red lines are support from previous lows and highs.
Lets look at some of the...
its again time for the weekly checkup!
There is a small potential for wave 4 (in green) to be not just finished. Maybe wave (v) in red is just (iii) and we will see a push higher.
If we break below the previous low ( wave (iv) ) we should see EURUSD fall like a stone.
Lets take a look closer to the hourly charts. I have two possible...
I believe that this year the saying "Sell in may and go away" won't work.
We can see a very complex and time consuming correction. It is an irregular correction where wave (b) tops wave (a) (in red). The structure is 3-3-5.
Wave (c) is unfolding and we can count 5 waves down. Wave 2 is very small and shallow. Wave 4 is again a complex correction. We...
Wow it's the 2nd month I'm doing this weekly check-up and first of all I would like to thank everybody for your interest and helpful feedback. Thank you !!!
Now let's do business!
That was a very bullish week (as expected in my last idea Week7) and we hit exactly the target of wave (iii) .
I'm still bullish!
Last week we saw the anticipated pullback (see Week6) but closed above the previous high of wave (i) (in red).
It looks like we have a flat correction with the wave structure 3-3-5. On the left side you see a textbook example. Let's see if we can get a real life example...
We saw a very strong week in the EURUSD .
I believe we should get a small correction and a sharp wave 3 in green. Ultimately we should get a 5 wave structure which will form a wave (c) in red and complete wave 4. This move up should find resistance at the last wave iv in green which has is a triangle.
After this structure is complete we will see a move down...
That was a big move down on friday.
We should see a little move upwards (wave 4 in red) and the last impulse down which will complete wave 5 in wave (c) in wave (4) .
On the right side you see the previous minor wave count (1-5) and the DAX should find support near 11400 which is also the 161.8% of wave (a) (in red).
If the correction finishes at 11400...
Welcome to the weekly check-up!
The last week was a week with massive volatility and a trading range of nearly 500 pips (L1.05668 to H1.10345).
Nevertheless I still believe that we will see a strong impulse move to the north. EURUSD reached the 1.10 level but couldn't hold it.
How can I come up with this idea?
You see the wave (1) which started in the end of...
It's time for the weekly check-up!
After the previous week was very bullish, this week was more of a correction.
The expectation of a rise of the fund rates has been corrected from june to december and therefore we saw high volatility in the crossrates.
Now lets take a look closer.
If you look at the following you see a mess. A lot of overlaps and a strong...
What a strong week for the EURUSD! On the right side (W-Chart) you see a big triangle and the fibo 1 (1.02842) seems still to be a legal target. On the right side you can see the rise in wave 4.
In the 1H Chart we see two possible szenarios. If we believe the downtrend will continue then we should count 1 and 2 (in red).
If we believe that the 5 wave down move...
After a very strong wave 3 we also have a very strong wave 5, which seems to find an end near the 12200 (fibo 1.0).
If wave 5 should end there we should see a bigger correction (in time and space) which will get in the area of wave 4 (marked in red as a-b-c).
Should wave 5 not stop at fibo 1.0 it may form an extended wave 5 which will run ultimately till 1.618...
Since 2009 EURUSD was trapped in a triangle. After wave e came to an end we saw another fast drop in price.
This rally should find an end at or near 1.02622 because waves A and C tend to be equal in a correction (see Elliott Wave Theory) and its near the fibonacci level of 0.764.
I'll do a weekly check-up!
This is an easy one.
You see an ABC correction (in red) with a wave 5 in wave c which terminates at 0.5 fibo of wave 1 to 3 added to wave 4 (see the dashed line from b to 4).
RSI is showing a divergence which also gives the signal that the correction is over and lower prices will come.
Price also broke below the wave 4 and strengthens the signal.
We should see...
From the previous low in Juli 2014 you can see a clear up move in 5 waves.
We've seen the power of the USD in the last weeks and months, so there is a good tendency for a higher push.
You see that wave (3) isn't the shortest wave and the correction wave (4) ends in the area of wave iv of one lesser degree (characteristically for 4th wave corrections)
Now we are...
Since the beginning of 2012 you can see a strong up move, which terminated at 189.698.
Wave 5 ended exactly at the 0.382 level and finished the cycle impulse wave I.
Now we are in a correction (zigzag). Target of wave II should be in the area of wave 4 of one lesser degree or between fibo 0.236 and 0.382.
For a closer look at the details of the wave count see...
You can see a wave 5 move up and a beginning correction
Wave 5 ends in between fibo 0.382 and 0.5 from the start of wave 1 and wave 3 added to the termination point of wave 4
There should come a correction or a little move upwards to 0.618 fibo.
Price target before next move up is approximately 11750.
Wave 5 runs up to Fibonacci 0.618 and...