SolidSnake

My View of FED possible outcomes for September

FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
despite my latest bearish views and due to the recent rupture of the 1120 trendline resistance we could still see some Euro             strengh from now on.

If we dont go back below the 1100 area and we do this "soon" enough then Im afraid the euro             strengh will be maintained even with a rate hike (as long as its below 0,25%). On the contrary, a rate hike over 0,25% (0,50% would be needed now) would be seen as veery strong signal for the Dollar although this is less plausible.

Up to now, we have seen some mixed US macro indicators but the Euro             still climbing and has reached 1,12 this week.we have not been here over the last 5-6 weeks which tells me the Euro             is gaining strengh as the Dollar has not been able to break the 1,08 area.


you decide... :)
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