Right now ( at 3:00 am EST , New York time -- 15/08/2016 ) , EURUSD is very overstretched but Turkey and EM markets are still a risk. If you add in ITALY and a couple of other EM countries , then we have "99 problems for EURO and US Dollar ain't one of them " .
Where are the EURUSD Bulls ? with BIG PANTS ? Are they scared now ? Well the pain is starting to get real .
So where do we go from here as traders:
BUY relief rally if it materializes or SELL the extreme oversold bearish trend ?
BUY Long-Term Contrarian view ( 1 to 6 months )
Entry: BUY at 1.1280 to 1.1336
Exit : 1.1640 to 1.1675
SELL Short-Term DayTrader view ( 1 to 14 days ) -- Quick Sell if EURUSD keep hiding in their offices
Entry: 1.1390 to 1.1420
Exit: Above 1.1360
Where are the EURUSD Bulls ? with BIG PANTS ? Are they scared now ? Well the pain is starting to get real .
So where do we go from here as traders:
BUY relief rally if it materializes or SELL the extreme oversold bearish trend ?
BUY Long-Term Contrarian view ( 1 to 6 months )
Entry: BUY at 1.1280 to 1.1336
Exit : 1.1640 to 1.1675
SELL Short-Term DayTrader view ( 1 to 14 days ) -- Quick Sell if EURUSD keep hiding in their offices
Entry: 1.1390 to 1.1420
Exit: Above 1.1360
Comment:
NEWS:
Foreign exchange strategists with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) reckon the Euro exchange rates will not suffer lasting damage from the Turkish financial crisis.
The Euro suffered amidst concerns for European banks with substantial Turkish exposure and reports confirmed the European Central Bank (ECB) was indeed taking notice prompting markets to view developments as a potential reason for the central bank to delay impending policy changes.
"A textbook currency crisis is unfolding in Turkey. Large and widening current account deficit, check. Growing foreign currency debt, check. High and rising inflation, check. Constrained monetary policymaking, check," says foreign exchange analyst Alvin Tan with Société Générale on London.
Foreign exchange strategists with CBA do however suggest the negative implications for the Euro from the Lira crisis are likely to be limited and that the ECB will not have to change course.
"We do not anticipate significant declines for the EUR because of the economic developments in Turkey," says a note from CBA, dated August 13, adding:
"We do not anticipate a change in the ECB's monetary policy stance because of Turkish economic and political developments. Nor do we believe EUR/USD will decline significantly because of events in Turkey."
Foreign exchange strategists with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) reckon the Euro exchange rates will not suffer lasting damage from the Turkish financial crisis.
The Euro suffered amidst concerns for European banks with substantial Turkish exposure and reports confirmed the European Central Bank (ECB) was indeed taking notice prompting markets to view developments as a potential reason for the central bank to delay impending policy changes.
"A textbook currency crisis is unfolding in Turkey. Large and widening current account deficit, check. Growing foreign currency debt, check. High and rising inflation, check. Constrained monetary policymaking, check," says foreign exchange analyst Alvin Tan with Société Générale on London.
Foreign exchange strategists with CBA do however suggest the negative implications for the Euro from the Lira crisis are likely to be limited and that the ECB will not have to change course.
"We do not anticipate significant declines for the EUR because of the economic developments in Turkey," says a note from CBA, dated August 13, adding:
"We do not anticipate a change in the ECB's monetary policy stance because of Turkish economic and political developments. Nor do we believe EUR/USD will decline significantly because of events in Turkey."
Comment:
We are hitting a good "FAT juicy steak of resistance " on US Dollar index (DXY) at 96.88 Area , so until DXY Bulls break that EURUSD is hovering around 1.1320s or the 14-Month lows .
Looks to me that we might visit the 1.1200s to say hello but we might not stay in the 1.1200s for long time
NOTE: US Dollar Index is very well bid and supported at the moment. Until that starts changing be careful .
Looks to me that we might visit the 1.1200s to say hello but we might not stay in the 1.1200s for long time
NOTE: US Dollar Index is very well bid and supported at the moment. Until that starts changing be careful .
Comment:
Key resistance & Support areas for US Dollar index :
102.93 --- Dec 2016 (High 2016)
100.28 --- March 2015 and November 2015 ( High 2015 )
92.90 --- May 2015 and April 2016 ( Lows for 2015 and 2016 )
88.96 --- Jan 2018 and February 2018 ( Lows for 2018 and also lows for the last 3 years)
Current DXY Reversal range : 96.18 to 98.93
Normal ATR for DXY from Low to High = 7.28 to 10.04 points within around 8 to 14 months
Since our rally has entered the reversal range 96.18 to 98.93, we expect reversal to occur in the coming weeks and therefore reverse the EURUSD drop before we see any attempt at 100.28 and 102.93 resistance levels
So depending on when DXY reverses we could see another drop of upto 270 pips on EURUSD before we break the 98.93 Level on DXY
NOTE: if the DXY rally continues and moves above the reversal range top at 98.93 the look for the EURUSD to break 1.1055
But right now , US Retail sales are coming up which most likely will have the EURUSD smash into 1.1200s unless it disappoints
102.93 --- Dec 2016 (High 2016)
100.28 --- March 2015 and November 2015 ( High 2015 )
92.90 --- May 2015 and April 2016 ( Lows for 2015 and 2016 )
88.96 --- Jan 2018 and February 2018 ( Lows for 2018 and also lows for the last 3 years)
Current DXY Reversal range : 96.18 to 98.93
Normal ATR for DXY from Low to High = 7.28 to 10.04 points within around 8 to 14 months
Since our rally has entered the reversal range 96.18 to 98.93, we expect reversal to occur in the coming weeks and therefore reverse the EURUSD drop before we see any attempt at 100.28 and 102.93 resistance levels
So depending on when DXY reverses we could see another drop of upto 270 pips on EURUSD before we break the 98.93 Level on DXY
NOTE: if the DXY rally continues and moves above the reversal range top at 98.93 the look for the EURUSD to break 1.1055
But right now , US Retail sales are coming up which most likely will have the EURUSD smash into 1.1200s unless it disappoints
Comment:
EURUSD is heading below 1.1300 towards 1.1200s since US Dollar index just broke 96.90 .
We are free to head down to 1.12000s if the EURUSD Bears want . The path is way clearer now than before
We are free to head down to 1.12000s if the EURUSD Bears want . The path is way clearer now than before
Comment:
1.13000 here we come again to try and break that support .it has been a fight to the end EURUSD Bears vs Bulls
Comment:
EURUSD Bulls ( i call them EURO Chickens) they came out of hiding just to go back into hiding . What a joke ?
Anyway:
The Turkey LIRA disease is still spreading so be careful. The EURO was stable a bit but there is extreme volatility in the FX market today
Anyway:
The Turkey LIRA disease is still spreading so be careful. The EURO was stable a bit but there is extreme volatility in the FX market today
Comment:
I am must be reading this wrong
Are the Germany traders ( Most of them are EURO Bulls) afraid of buying the EURO ? Scared of the Might King Dollar ? i guess
hmmmmmm!!!!!!!!! Now that's a bummer
Are the Germany traders ( Most of them are EURO Bulls) afraid of buying the EURO ? Scared of the Might King Dollar ? i guess
hmmmmmm!!!!!!!!! Now that's a bummer
Comment:
it seem one of the EU BIG BOYS was buying the US Dollar in a hurry in the last 30 mins after the London and Frankfurt open .
Wiped 25 pips off EURO gain in 25 mins and then stopped abruptly
Wiped 25 pips off EURO gain in 25 mins and then stopped abruptly
Otherwise, Keep munching at the SELLing the EURUSD until otherwise .
Most likely we might take out 1.1300 and head to Mid 1.1200s if this persists