EURUSD 13 Feb 2024 W7 - Intraday Analysis - US CPI Day

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

1. 4H
   
2. 15m
   

NOTE:
As i came to chart today it had the confusion for the first time since months in a clear view on the 15m Time Frame. This is because the Price behavior since Jan 2024 is not trending clearly specially in the past 2 to 3 weeks.

I decided to have 2 Scenarios for the 15m and will see which is the result after. I lean more Scenario 1 but lets see the at the end of the day what will be the results. It's one of these days that the market is telling you go do something else 😃 especially it's US CPI Day and one of the most waited news events since last FOMC meeting.

4H Chart Analysis (Nothing major changed since yesterday)


1.

• Swing Bullish
  
• INT Bearish
  
• OF Bearish
  
• In Swing Discount / Possible LiQ Sweep
  

2.

• Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
  
• After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
  
• Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
  
• This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
  
• We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
  
• More price development needed with the current PA.
  

3.

• Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS.
  
• With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is fully mitigated and every move up is just a sell opportunity.
  
• After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ.
  
• As per previous days analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Swing is still Holding.
  
• From the Fractal CHoCHs happening after Sweeping the LiQ below the 4H Swing Low showing that demand in control.
  
• We are currently in the Pullback Phase of the Bearish iBOS and expectations to continue Bullish till the INT Structure EQ and maybe extending to the INT Extreme Supply.
  

15m Chart Analysis - Scenario 1️⃣


1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• INT Bullish
  
• Pullback Phase
  

2.

• INT Structure turned Bullish with iBOS confirming that the 15m Swing Pullback started as expected and we may have a deeper pullback.
  
• After iBOS we expect a pullback which already started after a Bearish INT to INT Structure iiBOS.
  
• As we didn't reach the Swing EQ or any HP POI we will have still the probability to continue up to maybe the 4H Supply Zone.
  

3.

• The INT Structure had finished after the Bullish iiBOS.
  
• Price is currently mitigating the INT to INT structure and expectations set to the target the Weak INT to INT high and then the INT High.
  

15m Chart Analysis - Scenario 2️⃣ (Correction INT Bearish)


1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• INT Bearish
  
• Continuation Phase
  

2.

• INT Structure turned Bearish signaling that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the continuation phase targeting the Swing Low.
  
• After iBOS we expect a pullback which is already started after a Bullish CHoCH reaching the INT Premium area but didn't mitigate any HP POI.
  
• Expectations is set to targeting the Weak INT Low and continuation to target the Weak Swing Low.
  

3.

• Demand Zone formed on the INT Pullback which is currently providing reaction and expectations is set to take out the current Weak INT Low.