The canary in the coal mine for a mortgage default crisis is unemployment, and this week we're likely to see initial jobless claims jump from 280,000 last week to some number in the millions. Reports indicate that New York's unemployment office is receiving 200,000-500,000 new claims per day, and California's jumped from 2,000 to 80,000 overnight. Both offices are overwhelmed and their employees are working huge amounts of overtime to keep up with all the new claims.
Bad mortgages aren't as big a risk to the economy as they were in 2008, but they're still a pretty big risk. The Trump administration has been lowering lending standards for several years, and the share of mortgages considered "high risk" has been rising rapidly. There's going to be pain in the banking sector. I will enter FAZ ahead of Thursday's ICSA report this week.