Akil_Stokes
Short

GBPAUD: SHORT?? Is This Guy Crazy?

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound/Australian Dollar
What fun would trading be if we didn't stem up a bit a controversy every once in a while. Now when looking at the higher timeframes everyone is calling for a long on the GBPAUD             based on the previous level of structure that we're coming into. Me...well I took a short position this morning at the 86 even handle. Seeing how more than 80% of traders fail I have no problem going against the grain especially with I can back it up with a valid case for entry. Although my initial trade was on the hourly timeframe, the chart before you is of the 15min because within the move that we've seen today, the market is offering traders of the 15 minute timeframe a second chance to get involved in the form of a 2618 setup.

Back to the initial though process of getting short, In this mornings Training session, I did a lesson on the different type of divergences. Regular vs. Hidden. While showing them an example on the GBPAUD             I actually stumbled upon a trade that looked like a great opportunity. So I took it. (For those of you in The Syndicate program Jason broke down this trade in WARROOM as welI.) What I saw was a standard trend continuation trade with the RSI being overbought and the presence of hidden divergence on the hourly timeframe. What I see on the 4 hour and daily charts doesn't scare me much as we've pushed past what I would have considered the reversal zone IF that structure level was going to hold. The test and hold of the 1.8400 level (w/rsi OS) is something I'm aware of, but my I don't need a push beyond that level to secure profits. With a risk/reward ratio of over 1:3 this was a no brainer hence my aggressive entry this morning.

I know I'm going to hear from you guys and I don't mind having the debate, all I ask is let's be professional and be open to the fact that in any market there has to be buyers and sellers at the same price level. Sometime's I'll be right, sometimes you'll be right. As long as we're all making money at the end then it's all good. So know strategy bashing please for you trolls out there.
Akil Stokes -Head FOREX Trading Coach at Trade Empowered
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ljniannic
2 years ago
Great, I am also shorting GBPAUD but I am using MA100 to filter at H1 timeframe. It was reject to break above MA 100.
The tp area is similar to your TP. Hopefully we are at the right track. Good luck.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP ljniannic
2 years ago
Thanks, same too you. Let's see if we can ride this thing down to glory
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P.NatButterCake
2 years ago
Akil, could you please have a look at my pattern analysis on EURUSD 15M ?
I'm curious if the X point of the butterfly in purple would be counted as a valid one.
I have a feeling that I shouldn't count that in because it's just 10 pips above the forming gartley in orange.
Thank you in advance,
Sorry to post this as it's not related to your post but I think this could be better than just send you a private message :)
My analysis>>
15M CT Bull GARTLEY with another Bull BUTTERFLY within
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Akil_Stokes TOP P.NatButterCake
2 years ago
purple x leg looks fine to me
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P.NatButterCake Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
Thanks for confirmation. After sitting and having some thought with it, their entries are separated wide enough regardless of the Xs so I'll give it a try.
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RyanHorner
2 years ago
I'm comment bombing your idea too...but not sure how else to reach you. I've been following Trade Empowered for quite some time now. What do you think of this?
AUD/CAD trend continuation setup.
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P.NatButterCake RyanHorner
2 years ago
snapshot

found this CYPHER on 240

P.S. thanks for making me feel better about my bombardment haha
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Akil_Stokes TOP RyanHorner
2 years ago
Looks like a good potential trend continuation trade. Not a fan of the stop/loss I'd assume it meets your rules
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RyanHorner Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
You think there should be more risk (aka. more wiggle room)?
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Akil_Stokes TOP RyanHorner
2 years ago
Here's the better question, because I don' want my response to have an affect on your trade. Why are your stops where they are?
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Akil_Stokes TOP RyanHorner
2 years ago
My trading philosophy values structure, so i personally look for structural levels to place stops above which is why I said that I wouldn't have them there. With that being said there are many ways to decide on where to place stops which is why I you'll never hear me give an answer like "it has to go here" I may do that to clients every now in the, but with them i know exactly why there trading.
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RyanHorner Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
I understand your point of view completely. You don't want to be "that guy" who wants to basically manage my trade for me. And I appreciate that! lol
According to structure, stops should probably go above the 1.000 handle. But quite honestly, I placed my stop where I did out of fear of being wrong and losing alot more pips than necessary. 250 pips to get to the 1.000 handle. I'm aware that response will garner a "you should probably stop trading" response :)
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IvanLabrie TOP RyanHorner
2 years ago
You need to understand how and where to place stops, not be afraid of getting stopped.
You won't get stopped that much if you are right more often, and you won't get far if you use too tight stops either.
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RyanHorner IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I moved the stop. Still in the trade...
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Akil_Stokes TOP RyanHorner
2 years ago
There are ways to place aggressive stops without needing structure but you have to be very confident in that level. You'd also need testing results to prove that over time it would pay off to be that aggressive. You're correct about my response ;-) but I would execute it on a demo, take notes after the outcome and use that experience to start develop a theroy for that type of stop loss. After you have a theory, you can then test it and who knows down the road if you can come up with something that consistently works, you'll have a hell of a risk/reward on those types of trades.
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caifu642
2 years ago
Akil, Just my 2 cents worth, but what I'm seeing and feeling is a cup and handle formation on the 15 min chart - albeit with a notch out of the handle. On the one hour chart, the stochastics and a slowed MACD has turned up (21,55,8).

I also don't know if it was the low home loan number out of Australia last night or if the currency just got overbought, but it had a significant correction last night and may be looking to correct some more, taking it back down to test the neckline of the double bottom formation (one hour chart). If that happens, it decreases the value of the denominator in this pair and if the GBP stays about the same or turns up, the pair should push upwards. No prediction on a target! Let's see what happens and thanks for bringing this to our attention!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP caifu642
2 years ago
No problem, thanks for the excellent comment. We've got GBP CPI numbers out during London (which i'm not sure will effect this trade) but hopefully IF it does go in my direction it occurs before Wednesday night (NY Time) as we're sure to see another big move from the Aussie Employment numbers. The one thing I hate about Aussie news is that the markets are so thin when it comes out that there is always a reaction.
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YipYip PRO
2 years ago
Good luck with that ...the aussie is in a massive downtrend ...with a recent correction of 150 points to the high side ... I dont think the aussie is going to pop back above 82 for the next 3 days at least
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Akil_Stokes TOP YipYip
2 years ago
Yeah the News on Wednesday will be sure to move things is nothing happens until then.
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Just got a lower low, lower close on the hourly which is a positive sign. Allows me to roll stops going into the overnight. We'll see what role GBP CPI plays at 4:30am. But it's out of my hands now.
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caifu642
2 years ago
Akil, It sounds from below that you're still in the trade and it is moving in your direction. Congratulations (and so much for my analysis!). Can I ask where you had your stop set? I'm thinking that it was somewhere above the previous structure high, but I'm wondering which one and how much room you give the stop to work. 1 and 1/2 times a 14 period ATR or something? Thanks, and good luck with the trade!
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Akil_Stokes TOP caifu642
2 years ago
Price action retraced over London so I'm essentially back around breakeven on this pair +15 as I type. My stops were and still are above the previous structure highs (8650's). I do use the ATR to help measure where my stops should go, however I use a 7 period ATR and of course combine that with structure.
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davidt1 PRO
2 years ago
I actually completely agree with you, I took a trade at 86 even earlier today :)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP davidt1
2 years ago
Nice! Hopefully we can both capitalize off of this one.
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dave.pye.5
2 years ago
Akil - regardless of the outcome, you have clearly outlined your plan, generously allowed others to see your thought process, and it is very easy for people to critique in hindsight. Ignore the trolls, there are some people out there who appreciate what you do. Cheers
+3 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP dave.pye.5
2 years ago
Thanks Dave, I forgot what famous investor said this but "most of the hard work should be done before you ever enter the trade."
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IssaOuattara
2 years ago
now we have to sell ! good trade
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snapshot


Hey Akil, This is not a trade i took, nor did i have the idea beforehand. I simply wanted to know If that was something you seemed valid? Why or why not? Just your thoughts. I want to make sure that my methodology is on track. Thanks Akil.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP daniel.garnier.10
2 years ago
Nothing I would be interested in. Risk reward isn't in my favor and I would have no reason to anticipate price action reaching those targets. So it's a trading opportunity just nothing I would personally put my money on the line for.
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daniel.garnier.10 Akil_Stokes
2 years ago
hmm Gotcha. Okay thanks akil !
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP daniel.garnier.10
2 years ago
I always like to think of it like this. It's not about finding trading opportunities, rather THE BEST trading opportunities
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