Akil_Stokes

GBPAUD: SHORT?? Is This Guy Crazy?

Short
FX:GBPAUD   British Pound / Australian Dollar
What fun would trading be if we didn't stem up a bit a controversy every once in a while. Now when looking at the higher timeframes everyone is calling for a long on the GBPAUD based on the previous level of structure that we're coming into. Me...well I took a short position this morning at the 86 even handle. Seeing how more than 80% of traders fail I have no problem going against the grain especially with I can back it up with a valid case for entry. Although my initial trade was on the hourly timeframe, the chart before you is of the 15min because within the move that we've seen today, the market is offering traders of the 15 minute timeframe a second chance to get involved in the form of a 2618 setup.

Back to the initial though process of getting short, In this mornings Training session, I did a lesson on the different type of divergences. Regular vs. Hidden. While showing them an example on the GBPAUD I actually stumbled upon a trade that looked like a great opportunity. So I took it. (For those of you in The Syndicate program Jason broke down this trade in WARROOM as welI.) What I saw was a standard trend continuation trade with the RSI being overbought and the presence of hidden divergence on the hourly timeframe. What I see on the 4 hour and daily charts doesn't scare me much as we've pushed past what I would have considered the reversal zone IF that structure level was going to hold. The test and hold of the 1.8400 level (w/ rsi OS) is something I'm aware of, but my I don't need a push beyond that level to secure profits. With a risk/reward ratio of over 1:3 this was a no brainer hence my aggressive entry this morning.

I know I'm going to hear from you guys and I don't mind having the debate, all I ask is let's be professional and be open to the fact that in any market there has to be buyers and sellers at the same price level. Sometime's I'll be right, sometimes you'll be right. As long as we're all making money at the end then it's all good. So know strategy bashing please for you trolls out there.
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Comments

Akil - regardless of the outcome, you have clearly outlined your plan, generously allowed others to see your thought process, and it is very easy for people to critique in hindsight. Ignore the trolls, there are some people out there who appreciate what you do. Cheers
+3 Reply
Akil_Stokes dave.pye.5
Thanks Dave, I forgot what famous investor said this but "most of the hard work should be done before you ever enter the trade."
Reply


Hey Akil, This is not a trade i took, nor did i have the idea beforehand. I simply wanted to know If that was something you seemed valid? Why or why not? Just your thoughts. I want to make sure that my methodology is on track. Thanks Akil.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes daniel.garnier.10
Nothing I would be interested in. Risk reward isn't in my favor and I would have no reason to anticipate price action reaching those targets. So it's a trading opportunity just nothing I would personally put my money on the line for.
Reply
hmm Gotcha. Okay thanks akil !
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes daniel.garnier.10
I always like to think of it like this. It's not about finding trading opportunities, rather THE BEST trading opportunities
Reply
I actually completely agree with you, I took a trade at 86 even earlier today :)
+1 Reply
Nice! Hopefully we can both capitalize off of this one.
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Akil, Just my 2 cents worth, but what I'm seeing and feeling is a cup and handle formation on the 15 min chart - albeit with a notch out of the handle. On the one hour chart, the stochastics and a slowed MACD has turned up (21,55,8).

I also don't know if it was the low home loan number out of Australia last night or if the currency just got overbought, but it had a significant correction last night and may be looking to correct some more, taking it back down to test the neckline of the double bottom formation (one hour chart). If that happens, it decreases the value of the denominator in this pair and if the GBP stays about the same or turns up, the pair should push upwards. No prediction on a target! Let's see what happens and thanks for bringing this to our attention!
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes caifu642
No problem, thanks for the excellent comment. We've got GBP CPI numbers out during London (which i'm not sure will effect this trade) but hopefully IF it does go in my direction it occurs before Wednesday night (NY Time) as we're sure to see another big move from the Aussie Employment numbers. The one thing I hate about Aussie news is that the markets are so thin when it comes out that there is always a reaction.
Reply
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