GBPAUD: SHORT?? Is This Guy Crazy?

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound / Australian Dollar
What fun would trading be if we didn't stem up a bit a controversy every once in a while. Now when looking at the higher timeframes everyone is calling for a long on the GBPAUD based on the previous level of structure that we're coming into. Me...well I took a short position this morning at the 86 even handle. Seeing how more than 80% of traders fail I have no problem going against the grain especially with I can back it up with a valid case for entry. Although my initial trade was on the hourly timeframe, the chart before you is of the 15min because within the move that we've seen today, the market is offering traders of the 15 minute timeframe a second chance to get involved in the form of a 2618 setup.

Back to the initial though process of getting short, In this mornings Training session, I did a lesson on the different type of divergences. Regular vs. Hidden. While showing them an example on the GBPAUD I actually stumbled upon a trade that looked like a great opportunity. So I took it. (For those of you in The Syndicate program Jason broke down this trade in WARROOM as welI.) What I saw was a standard trend continuation trade with the RSI being overbought and the presence of hidden divergence on the hourly timeframe. What I see on the 4 hour and daily charts doesn't scare me much as we've pushed past what I would have considered the reversal zone IF that structure level was going to hold. The test and hold of the 1.8400 level (w/rsi OS) is something I'm aware of, but my I don't need a push beyond that level to secure profits. With a risk/reward ratio of over 1:3 this was a no brainer hence my aggressive entry this morning.

I know I'm going to hear from you guys and I don't mind having the debate, all I ask is let's be professional and be open to the fact that in any market there has to be buyers and sellers at the same price level. Sometime's I'll be right, sometimes you'll be right. As long as we're all making money at the end then it's all good. So know strategy bashing please for you trolls out there.


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Hey Akil, This is not a trade i took, nor did i have the idea beforehand. I simply wanted to know If that was something you seemed valid? Why or why not? Just your thoughts. I want to make sure that my methodology is on track. Thanks Akil.
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes daniel.garnier.10
Nothing I would be interested in. Risk reward isn't in my favor and I would have no reason to anticipate price action reaching those targets. So it's a trading opportunity just nothing I would personally put my money on the line for.
hmm Gotcha. Okay thanks akil !
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes daniel.garnier.10
I always like to think of it like this. It's not about finding trading opportunities, rather THE BEST trading opportunities
now we have to sell ! good trade
Akil - regardless of the outcome, you have clearly outlined your plan, generously allowed others to see your thought process, and it is very easy for people to critique in hindsight. Ignore the trolls, there are some people out there who appreciate what you do. Cheers
+3 Reply
Akil_Stokes dave.pye.5
Thanks Dave, I forgot what famous investor said this but "most of the hard work should be done before you ever enter the trade."
I actually completely agree with you, I took a trade at 86 even earlier today :)
+1 Reply
Nice! Hopefully we can both capitalize off of this one.
Akil, It sounds from below that you're still in the trade and it is moving in your direction. Congratulations (and so much for my analysis!). Can I ask where you had your stop set? I'm thinking that it was somewhere above the previous structure high, but I'm wondering which one and how much room you give the stop to work. 1 and 1/2 times a 14 period ATR or something? Thanks, and good luck with the trade!
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