IvanLabrie
Short

GBPNZD: Forming an expanding terminal wedge

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound/New Zealand Dollar
We have one more push up left before this turns into a massive short in my opinion.
Right now, I had a short running, from a lower timeframe entry but I'll cover and go long at the support level in green, which also matches an 11 bar daily mode.

Look at the momentum indicators, I plotted a derivative oscillator, composite index and RSI with averages to illustrate my point: This is a topping formation, suggesting we sell the next swing up, which will probably form a lower momentum and atr peak before the house of cards comes crashing down.

Risk is 180 pips, but the target lies 809.3 pips up, so I won't hesitate with this setup.
Once we take profits from the long trade, we can initiate a short at the same area, so, leaving a take profit and a reverse position at the same price, using an ATR based stop. Will modify it if need be, for now I'd reccomend focusing on the long.

See the related ideas for more examples on this methodology applied to this pair. Time at mode has been excellent at timing and pricing swing end points before, and I believe it will work again this time.

Cheers,
Ivan.
Trade closed: target reached
thats was stepping in front a freight train
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This might have been the top for all I know. Careful, NZD is still somewhat weak, but gold might retrace very soon.
Watching with attention. Potential for the short is intense.
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Great chart Ivan wtaching your development is very interesting and rewarding well done, doji at the close need to watch reaction next week
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO MarkLangley
Thanks!
These exotic pairs have a pretty wild adr, not for the faint of heart.
I switched to trading spreads instead, when dealing with them.
I'll make a post on the subject soon.
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I think when you publish this chart, you can label it a "long" and then make another chart when it hits the upside target and then label that one a "short". It's a shame to see this labeled as a losing trade (red background) when you labeled out the rally. Nice work Ivan!
+1 Reply
Thanks.
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its about to reach the target.
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Following one's plan pays off.

snapshot


Mental note...Now waiting to short.
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HodekLaco IvanLabrie
wait about 2,4
+1 Reply
Everyone wants 2.4, makes me doubt it'll hit that.
Or if it does hit it, it might continue higher and stop everyone.
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