IvanLabrie
Short

GBPNZD: Forming an expanding terminal wedge

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound/New Zealand Dollar
a year ago
We have one more push up left before this turns into a massive short in my opinion.
Right now, I had a short running, from a lower timeframe entry but I'll cover and go long at the support level in green, which also matches an 11 bar daily mode.

Look at the momentum indicators, I plotted a derivative oscillator, composite index and RSI with averages to illustrate my point: This is a topping formation, suggesting we sell the next swing up, which will probably form a lower momentum and atr peak before the house of cards comes crashing down.

Risk is 180 pips, but the target lies 809.3 pips up, so I won't hesitate with this setup.
Once we take profits from the long trade, we can initiate a short at the same area, so, leaving a take profit and a reverse position at the same price, using an ATR based stop. Will modify it if need be, for now I'd reccomend focusing on the long.

See the related ideas for more examples on this methodology applied to this pair. Time at mode has been excellent at timing and pricing swing end points before, and I believe it will work again this time.

Cheers,
Ivan.
a year ago
Trade closed: target reached
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FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Agree, watch these interesting setup, everything is pointing to 2.4000 as the top target to look for shorts
snapshot
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Excellent!
Then it might spike above it or not reach it before collapsing.
I'll enter short at my target after closing the long.
Might be a keeper for a long time once we're short.
+2 Reply
FullTimeTrader IvanLabrie
a year ago
This aligns also with the idea the NZD is reaching a bottom and will reverse soon. I will look for shorts around 2.400 for sure
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Yes, exactly. Finally some clarity.

Also, look at this idea: My alternate count in EURUSD would correlate with eur and gbp rallying one last time.
I'll aggressively buy the Euro if we gap down completing my triangle E. I expect a sharp triangle thrust up, completing the Y wave (this would be a triple three, with wxy wave W, triangle X and a sharp Y pending).

I think this is what aligns better with the rest of the currencies.

I'll post it in my Euro thread.
+1 Reply
AA15 IvanLabrie
a year ago
Which Euro thread you referring to?

Thnx
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IvanLabrie PRO AA15
a year ago
EURUSD: Short now, let Madame Y take care of it


Here's the update:

snapshot


See the correlations?

NZDUSD: Very close to a market bottom


End of the nzd weakness cycle soon. End of the Euro/GBP strength cycle soon, but first one last leg up for the Euro and Pound, one last leg down for the New Zealand dollar, at least in the intermediate term.
+1 Reply
Nice Candlestick Pattern To Match The Long. Previous Low Had Same Pattern.
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jotforex
a year ago
are you in long position now?
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IvanLabrie PRO jotforex
a year ago
Didn't get a fill and it shot up.
I placed a short with a stop at an invalidation level in case it shoots up.
I ultimately want to short this pair.
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ImranIshaq
a year ago
Nice analysis, as per my analysis it might even go to 2.46.
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kuzibekov
a year ago
Hello Sir. I have shorts 2.28. but wondering which level should be good for SL or it's better to let it run for a while or should hedge it.... seems GN bull run is gonna stop tomorrow. but this crazy pair moves crazy... :( I would appreciate any advice thx...
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO kuzibekov
a year ago
I got stopped from my short.
The bull run will last until the nzdusd and the gold downtrend slow down or reverse.
Two more days perhaps.
Just watch it, my stop was at 2.32396.
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kuzibekov IvanLabrie
a year ago
Thank you Sir. I entered with 1:1 leverage I have still room I can hold it Up 2.41, hope it's gonna start sell off before it gets there. Thank you once more
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO kuzibekov
a year ago
The stop in my chart would invalidate the downtrend for me.
1:1 is fine, people like to overleverage...dangerous.
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Placed a short up here again:
snapshot

(1% risk)
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Highest low trendline resistance slowing down price.
If long, get out before the news in 3:20hs.
I'll look at it tomorrow morning, might get a short out of it soon.
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Following one's plan pays off.

snapshot


Mental note...Now waiting to short.
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HodekLaco IvanLabrie
a year ago
wait about 2,4
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO HodekLaco
a year ago
Everyone wants 2.4, makes me doubt it'll hit that.
Or if it does hit it, it might continue higher and stop everyone.
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HodekLaco IvanLabrie
a year ago
yes u have right,target about 2,38 is good... if not shit we go 2,46 i think
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jotforex IvanLabrie
a year ago
2.4 is hit. are you short now? if yes then whats the tp?
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IvanLabrie PRO jotforex
a year ago
No shorts possible I fear.
snapshot

Try adding these to your chart, BB 21 and 50, 2 and 2.1 std deviations of the close.
Looks like a very strong trend for now, I'd wait for one more divergent peak in CCI, and ROC(63) divergence as well.
Rgmov, which is a custom indicator from Tim West's pack signals a strong uptrend as well, so will be really hard to go short safely for now.
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jotforex IvanLabrie
a year ago
where will it go from now. whs the up target?
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IvanLabrie PRO jotforex
a year ago
2.415 first, then it can jump to 2.6 almost.

snapshot
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jotforex IvanLabrie
a year ago
no correction?
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IvanLabrie PRO jotforex
a year ago
Not for now...too dangerous to short it without confirmation.
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jotforex IvanLabrie
a year ago
long here wud be good?
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IvanLabrie PRO jotforex
a year ago
No trade would be good.
Long entry was when I published the chart.
Now it's too risky, no reference point to place a stop.
We'll have to wait.
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jotforex
a year ago
its about to reach the target.
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timwest PRO
a year ago
I think when you publish this chart, you can label it a "long" and then make another chart when it hits the upside target and then label that one a "short". It's a shame to see this labeled as a losing trade (red background) when you labeled out the rally. Nice work Ivan!
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO timwest
a year ago
Thanks.
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Great chart Ivan wtaching your development is very interesting and rewarding well done, doji at the close need to watch reaction next week
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO MarkLangley
a year ago
Thanks!
These exotic pairs have a pretty wild adr, not for the faint of heart.
I switched to trading spreads instead, when dealing with them.
I'll make a post on the subject soon.
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This might have been the top for all I know. Careful, NZD is still somewhat weak, but gold might retrace very soon.
Watching with attention. Potential for the short is intense.
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Deleted
a year ago
thats was stepping in front a freight train
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