IvanLabrie
Long

GBPUSD: Still looks like a long to me

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
This is my second attempt at a long.
I think this pair is trending heavily up, and while I think some usd pairs might head down (like audusd             and nzdusd             , at least in the short/intermediate term), this pair looks to be headed up.
Once we cross the quarterly mode I'll be confident in hitting the yearly targets #1 and #2, for now I entered a long here, and also shorted audusd             (and went long usdjpy             , while shorting nzdjpy             ), thus trading a spread without having to trade gbpnzd             or gbpaud             , which are less liquid and don't move as predictably (where do you place a stop in that monster rally? Don't ask me...).

Technicals align nicely here, we have a confluence of both my rudimentary EW analysis, and time at mode, with the quarterly ROC trending up, CCI about to get overbought soon, crossing above -100 after finding support at a fibonacci cluster , which was also the previous daily mode. We have the mode in the trend rising, which is bullish , and rgmov forming a new high over a previous resistance, which resembles a wave 1-2 advance in EW terms (Tim West recently posted a chart about EURUSD             , performing his EW analysis directly on Rgmov, it can give excellent and more 'predictive' results than trying it on the actual price, do check it out.

Good luck if you take this trade,

Ivan.
Agree, the cycle up begins tonight. My upside target is 1.58-59
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by the way, to be precise, cycle up is in 10 hours
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Hey Ivan, Nice analysis. Do you take USDOLLAR strength into account before trading usd pairs. USDOLLAR currently being Bullish, I can't think of a reason to long any usd pair.
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IvanLabrie PRO moneymaking
I do, but on a relative strength basis, GBP is outperforming every other currency right now.
My trade is actually a spread trade, since I'm also short AUDUSD (got another one that is USDJPY long with NZDJPY short).
A better way (in my opinion) to play these imbalances in relative strength without having to go with very exotic crosses that give poor reference points.
Where do you enter/where do you put stops? (think GBPAUD, GBPNZD, NZDUSD...)
I think the equities will rally now, and this will put pressure on the yen vs the dollar, and vs the pound.
I also think gold will fall some more, and that aud and nzd will continue to fall for a couple more days at least and found a good trade setup in AUDUSD.
Once I think being short audusd and nzdjpy is a bad idea, or that being long usdjpy is a bad idea I'll close those trades.
Hopefully this results in a way to protect my exposure to one trade, whilst making profits on other pairs that are correlated and anticorrelated.
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I think down:
snapshot
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Interesting much appreciated, however I have a slightly different outlook on this pair. Notice price action is mimicking the previous high by way of nearly identical candles. I'll be very interested in the daily close and tomorrows trading session. Looking for sub 1.54 now.
snapshot
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I don't subscribe to the wolfe wave nor David Alcindor's 'geo' variation on it personally.
I don't think you can trade a wedge that starts without a lower low than the first point, so personally, I stick to my plan.
EW and time at mode, which is what I use, for me at least, implies higher highs to come.
If we move decisively under the recent lowest low in the daily, then this analysis will be invalid.
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BTCMarket IvanLabrie
Fair play and good luck to you. I'm seeing lower lows being put in with a new downtrend in play but if we get above the prior days long legged doji then I'm inclined to agree with your chart.
snapshot
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I see, well, I don't look at trendlines, that's why we differ in our opinions.
I look at the structure of the whole rally since the lows, and the structure of each leg.
Only trendlines I use connect lowest highs, or highest lows (like in my last cadjpy or audusd charts).
Thanks for the comments!
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
I do look at trendlines, and we are in the same bout Ivan :)
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and I expect quite a rally, not a slow rise
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I'd rather not in general, different brokers have different heights for their spikes/stop runs.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
if it works why not
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It more or less does but doesn't give me a location for my stop, nor for my target.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
I add fibs and cycles to it and it gives me all I need, stop, target ,supports, resistances, when to act
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Right, you need extra tools.
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Closed 75% of the position and moved stop to break even.
Now to sit and wait.
Ivan Labrie, 7/17/2015
GBPUSD @ 1.56658
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Cycle up begun as projected
snapshot
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After the 5 wave count, the rest might have been part of a triangle, this last swing up being a D.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
If this is the case, the next retracement should be smaller in time and price, and give us a great entry before we see a triangle thrus up into a 5 wave C similar to the 5 wave A on chart.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
thrust*
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
This would match Tim West's EW analysis of the euro, probably syncing for that leg, since both seem to have similar patterns, although not the exact same timing.
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Was considering it, but the move had gone too far for me to get an entry. Wanted to pick out the bottom to the 20 for minimal risk.
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IvanLabrie PRO Tom_Killick
I had done that, then got out too early, then got in again and cashed out 2%.
Now in the sidelines.
Will long UC and short CJ today.
Watching closely since I think Cad might have remain weak some time before we can go long on whatever cross.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
since you are looking on the CAD pairs, I think EURCAD looks best
EURCAD PREPARING FOR A RALLY
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USD and CAD news now, usdcad will explode up. I want some quick pips that's all.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
the news for the USD could be bad
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Doesn't matter to me.
Good or bad, USDCAD will more probably go up first.
At least to 1.3063, if above that it can hit 1.33-1.35.
75 pip stop loss, worth a shot.
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Following A Down Trend Line Break Out, And A True Definition Of Trend = Higher Highs + Higher Lows, I Believe Price Should Lift Off. A Break Above the Prior High of 2015-06-18. Additionally, We Currently Have Mode Building, Following A Series Of 5 Trend Bars W/o A New Low.
GBPUSD:  HIGHER LOW MAJOR TREND REVERSAL IN PLAY
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IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
There are more signals, divergent top, I think it's a triangle after an impulsive wave.
Let's not speculate so much and just trade.
If I'm right, going long now will be really disappointing and might probably get you stopped.
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Changed my mind, looks bearish to me now
GBPUSD TO FORM A DOUBLE BOTTOM
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Yes, decreasing momentum.
I'll long eurgbp asap, not in the mood for gbpusd or eurusd directional trades right now.
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with u on it.
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Closed my spread trade, long eurusd, short gbpusd. Profit was 0.7%.
Total so far 1% with both the spread trade and the EURGBP long.
Now in waiting mode, let's see what the NY traders do.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
GBPUSD near very strong support, could be a selloff on NY session
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forgot about this chart where cable bounced off the target
GBPUSD DOWN THEN UP
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