I think this pair is trending heavily up, and while I think some usd pairs might head down (like audusd and nzdusd , at least in the short/intermediate term), this pair looks to be headed up.
Once we cross the quarterly mode I'll be confident in hitting the yearly targets #1 and #2, for now I entered a long here, and also shorted audusd (and went long usdjpy , while shorting nzdjpy ), thus trading a spread without having to trade gbpnzd or gbpaud , which are less liquid and don't move as predictably (where do you place a stop in that monster rally? Don't ask me...).
Technicals align nicely here, we have a confluence of both my rudimentary EW analysis, and time at mode, with the quarterly trending up, about to get overbought soon, crossing above -100 after finding support at a , which was also the previous daily mode. We have the mode in the trend rising, which is , and rgmov forming a new high over a previous resistance, which resembles a wave 1-2 advance in EW terms (Tim West recently posted a chart about EURUSD , performing his EW analysis directly on Rgmov, it can give excellent and more 'predictive' results than trying it on the actual price, do check it out.
Good luck if you take this trade,
My trade is actually a spread trade, since I'm also short AUDUSD (got another one that is USDJPY long with NZDJPY short).
A better way (in my opinion) to play these imbalances in relative strength without having to go with very exotic crosses that give poor reference points.
Where do you enter/where do you put stops? (think GBPAUD, GBPNZD, NZDUSD...)
I think the equities will rally now, and this will put pressure on the yen vs the dollar, and vs the pound.
I also think gold will fall some more, and that aud and nzd will continue to fall for a couple more days at least and found a good trade setup in AUDUSD.
Once I think being short audusd and nzdjpy is a bad idea, or that being long usdjpy is a bad idea I'll close those trades.
Hopefully this results in a way to protect my exposure to one trade, whilst making profits on other pairs that are correlated and anticorrelated.
I don't think you can trade a wedge that starts without a lower low than the first point, so personally, I stick to my plan.
EW and time at mode, which is what I use, for me at least, implies higher highs to come.
If we move decisively under the recent lowest low in the daily, then this analysis will be invalid.
I look at the structure of the whole rally since the lows, and the structure of each leg.
Only trendlines I use connect lowest highs, or highest lows (like in my last cadjpy or audusd charts).
Thanks for the comments!