DanV
Long

GBPNZD - POTENTIAL TRIANGLE FORMATION OFFERING BULLISH TRADE

FX_IDC:GBPNZD   POUND STERLING / NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR
NOTE:
I am sure there are several economic & fundamental factors at play in this pair as is always the case in all financial instruments. However, I am not considering these and are analysing price chart from technical perspective alone.

It is hard to make any long term accurate projections using any form of analysis, so price path illustrated on the chart are not going to hold and it should be considered as idealistic schematic diagram for anticipating larger cycle and as a guide in general direction.


Chart Observations

Whilst holding bullish bias overall for some time, I was puzzled by its inability to break above resistance recently resulting in complete review and here is a summary of my observations as follows:

On larger time frame we have possible pitchfork which has defined the price path relatively well and it suggests an over all bullish longer term trend for this pair. (See 3day & daily chart price charts below for details)

However, having moved of the low to September 2014 high it has gone into consolidation phase.

Since September high of 2014, it seems so far that the price has been moving in a wider 3 swing zigzags and possibly forming what looks like a contacting triangle (this configuration Elliotwave is called 3-3-3-3-3 triangle, which is a trend continuation consolidation).

If this interpretation is correct, then we can note that Wave A has completed and are in final stage of completing Wave B, having declined from February 2015 high in abc zigzag and are in possible wave 5 of C which could complete around 1.9350 - 1.93 area before reversing to the upside.

Bullish trade could be planned and executed with necessary price confirmation in that zone with sensible money management. Previous structural supports could be used to plan for initial stop loss placement. Though it must be noted that this pair is very volatile and tight stops is not advisable so to manage wider stop position size must accordingly be kept small.

It is interesting that the triangle formation is relatively large offering several long and short swing trades as it progress.

Technicals:
1. Approaching lower range of the potential triangle.
2. Larger Wave B is nearly complete with minor wave c of abc zigzag in final stage ie wave 5 soon to complete.
3. Rising trendline and previous structure lows in close proximity where low is anticipated around 1.9350 -1.93.
4. Several fib retracement and extensions and projection proving confluence in the area.


As, always please do your own analysis for your requirement. Select to follow me and the charts for notification of any updates. If you like the analysis show this by thumbs up and constructive comments or alternative ideas for all to learn from.

Thanks for taking the time to view my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
DanV MOD
2 years ago
3 Day chart referred to above
snapshot
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Daily price chart referred to above
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Daniel.B
2 years ago
Alas! The long awaited chart! lol =D Very well analyzed Dan!
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DanV MOD Daniel.B
2 years ago
Thank you so kindly for your comments.
+1 Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
Hi Danv, this could be a long of a life time, just my view
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DanV MOD jangseohee
2 years ago
Yes I agree, that has been my view since that low but it is taking time and forming an excellent base for it. Thanks for chiming in.
+1 Reply
Excellent, me, you and jang agree on this one...
I got stopped out at BE in my long, but I'll go long again soon.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes at better entry with less risk too. Excellent. Thanks.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
Yes, that's the plan.
I like to long from support from time to time, but I'm not that greedy with this type of trade, I quickly move stops to BE after being in profit.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
That is great.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Just a quick note - There is a webinar interview today hosted by Tradingview in conjunction with Exante . You can go and register here : https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/958650259989559553
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Published updated chart
GBPNZD-POTENTIAL TRIANGLE FORMATION OFFERING BULLISH TRADE ENTRY
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