SHORT! GBPUSD Looks to want to drop back down & resume DOWNTREND
Weekly chart with obvious longterm downtrend over last 14 YEARS (Thick Yellow Lines)
Price recently started to turn lower with now a retest of the resistance.
SHORT Entry = $1.36805
SL = $1.39312
TP = $1.21
Price recently started to turn lower with now a retest of the resistance.
SHORT Entry = $1.36805
SL = $1.39312
TP = $1.21
Trade active:
HUGE gain today. Staying SHORT. Looking to ADD to positions if given the chance.
Trade active:
Despite having huge gains so far plan to wait now on ADD to position. We had a retracement today and $USD index appears to be topping out while coming up to a resistance zone of a rising wedge pattern. As most of you know rising wedge is a Bearish pattern. So, if $USD is about to reverse course lower this trade may be ready to reverse as well. In addition Gold/Silver appear to be taking off higher and recent Infrastructure Spending BIll all add to $USD devaluation (lower $USD). Will keep a close eye on $USD and likely dictate my decision on this trade based off the evolution of that cumulative info over coming days.
Comment:
Decided to move SL down to 1.38007
Comment:
Looks like we may get a move down to 1.335 level. So far trade is very profitable. Let see where we end the day.
Comment:
USD broke out above Major resistance today and looks to want to go higher. That makes this trade one of the best places to be positioned. I will look to ADD to this at the next opportunity.
Comment:
Trade is well into profit now. We are approaching the bottom of the small downward price channel as well as Horizontal support which would be an obvious place to expect a bounce higher. Price @ $1.335 now and support is $1.334. A logical place to retrace to would be the next higher resistance zone which corresponds to the 39 EMA which is my preferred moving average I watch. Both of those are @ $1.363.
Placing SELL Limit order @ 1.35976 to ADD to Position. SL = $1.38007. RISK 0.5% more for Total Risk = 0.98%
Lets see if it fills.
Placing SELL Limit order @ 1.35976 to ADD to Position. SL = $1.38007. RISK 0.5% more for Total Risk = 0.98%
Lets see if it fills.
Comment:
Trade is WELL into Profits so far. USD today brokeout above strong Horizontal Resistance. We will see if that holds as support now. If so then I would expect this trade to continue being profitable.
Having said that its possible that we are at a turning point in the market as Stocks keep testing overhead resistance and crytpo takes a bit of a pull back and other trades of mine were stopped out.
So I am lowering my SL to breakeven at $1.36805.
For those paying attention I have an ADD to Position SELL Limit order on at $1.35976 with the original SL on that entry at $1.38077 with 0.5% RISK on for that enty. For now I have decided to leave that as is and reevaluate over next few days as I see what evolves.
If we are truly at a turning point in the markets I would expect people to "FLEE TO SAFETY" which is usually the USD, Bonds, JPY etc,... That would mean that THIS trade should continue to do well. So I also dont want to get shaken out of a winning trade because of the bit of losses I took on other crypto trades today.
Having said that its possible that we are at a turning point in the market as Stocks keep testing overhead resistance and crytpo takes a bit of a pull back and other trades of mine were stopped out.
So I am lowering my SL to breakeven at $1.36805.
For those paying attention I have an ADD to Position SELL Limit order on at $1.35976 with the original SL on that entry at $1.38077 with 0.5% RISK on for that enty. For now I have decided to leave that as is and reevaluate over next few days as I see what evolves.
If we are truly at a turning point in the markets I would expect people to "FLEE TO SAFETY" which is usually the USD, Bonds, JPY etc,... That would mean that THIS trade should continue to do well. So I also dont want to get shaken out of a winning trade because of the bit of losses I took on other crypto trades today.
Comment:
Changed my SELL Limit Order to $1.35894. Let see if it fills in the next several days.
Comment:
Prices continue lower. May need to adjust my SELL Limit Order to ADD to Position. For now NO changes.
Trade closed manually:
Decided to close this position for BIG Profit. The reason is that despite the bpunce in $USD this evening the $USD is at a HUGE Resistance zone. The Yellow Line in the chart posted below is a MAJOR TRENDLINE Support that is 11 years old!!. This trendline support was broken last year in July 2020 and has fueled the stock market rally as well as Gold and Silver rallies from July 2020 to June 2021 (until $USD started to rise in Jun 2021).
Now I am expecting at least a significant level of resistance if not outright rejection of the $USD at this level. You do NOT break an 11 year old trend line and just blow right back through it again on 1st attempt 18 months later. So likely scenario is rejection of $USD here especially with all the money printing going on world wide. We could also test the Yellow Line several times before breaking through. But that would mean $USD is consolidating and not much price action. Best is to stand aside and see what $USD wants to do.
Having said that the GBP/USD Trade should bounce higher and retrace significantly if $USD is rejected or also consolidate (like $USD) at these levels which happens to be support of the down trend channel. All of that means no movement in price and my capital is being wasted in this trade. If $USD is rejected and resumes its downtrend then GBP may in fact be putting in a BULL Flag with this large Down Trend Channel that I have captured profits in. In that case I would be giving back most if not all my profits.
So, I have closed this position manually for a BIG Profit and will be watching this trade and other currency pairs to see what direction is best to reenter.
Now I am expecting at least a significant level of resistance if not outright rejection of the $USD at this level. You do NOT break an 11 year old trend line and just blow right back through it again on 1st attempt 18 months later. So likely scenario is rejection of $USD here especially with all the money printing going on world wide. We could also test the Yellow Line several times before breaking through. But that would mean $USD is consolidating and not much price action. Best is to stand aside and see what $USD wants to do.
Having said that the GBP/USD Trade should bounce higher and retrace significantly if $USD is rejected or also consolidate (like $USD) at these levels which happens to be support of the down trend channel. All of that means no movement in price and my capital is being wasted in this trade. If $USD is rejected and resumes its downtrend then GBP may in fact be putting in a BULL Flag with this large Down Trend Channel that I have captured profits in. In that case I would be giving back most if not all my profits.
So, I have closed this position manually for a BIG Profit and will be watching this trade and other currency pairs to see what direction is best to reenter.
Comment:
Forgot to mention that I closed trade @ $1.3339. Reasons above.
See Comment below with chart of GBPUSD.
See Comment below with chart of GBPUSD.