Hi Traders
Please see our initial analysis on Gbp/Usd.
Technicals:
We can see how exhausted price looks at this level and we have rejection after rejection at at the 1.36 handle which in turn has created day after day off bearish pin barS and showing that continueD rejection.
We could see first off all price has created the massive impulse to the upside at 1.375 which was followed by the correction to the low 0.618 Fib retracement. For the upside momentum to continue above 1.375 we didn't want price to make a lower low which it has done and we have found what looks to be a lower high finding resistance at 1.36 (major psychological level) which also lines up nicely to the 0.618 Fib level adding extra resistance.
We will be looking for price to continue lower towards 1.356 - 1358 before we may see some intra day consolidation fully anticipating price to breakdown again and we may very well see the lows at 1.32 again. (USD has a lot of work to do between now and then).
Fundamentals:
We have the members of the federal reserve holding an informal emergency meeting on 14/02/22. It is reported from HSBC bank that they are forecasting that the federal reserve will raise interest rates by 0.5% in March and in whole raising interest rates by 1.5%.
We see central banks around the world already raising interest rates so we are confident that the US will follow suit which in turn may be the catalyst that we need for this trade to take us back down towards the lows at 1.32.
Coming out of the US next week we also have some high impacting data which we ideally want to suggest that the economy is continuing to run hot and grow. We want to see retail sales on the rise and unemployment figures to continue dropping lower.
It will be crucial to keep an eye on the high impacting data coming out of the UK next week. For our bearish bias to continue and to be strengthened we want to see signs that inflation is starting to slow down rather than increase.
It is also important to keep up to date with the tension in the Ukraine as this can have a massive impact on how quickly we expect to see this move however we will be focusing on more risk off currencies such as JPY to take advantage off any risk off sentiment that we are predicting to come in to the market.
Summary:
At present we have a bearish bias for Gbp/Usd both technically and fundamentally.
We will be both monitoring daily closes and also will be looking for bearish set ups on the 4hr and 1hr charts. Once something valid appears we will post these in the comments below so please ensure you like this post and follow to receive the update notifications.
As always trade safely and remember 1% is always enough.
The Fx Chartist
Please see our initial analysis on Gbp/Usd.
Technicals:
We can see how exhausted price looks at this level and we have rejection after rejection at at the 1.36 handle which in turn has created day after day off bearish pin barS and showing that continueD rejection.
We could see first off all price has created the massive impulse to the upside at 1.375 which was followed by the correction to the low 0.618 Fib retracement. For the upside momentum to continue above 1.375 we didn't want price to make a lower low which it has done and we have found what looks to be a lower high finding resistance at 1.36 (major psychological level) which also lines up nicely to the 0.618 Fib level adding extra resistance.
We will be looking for price to continue lower towards 1.356 - 1358 before we may see some intra day consolidation fully anticipating price to breakdown again and we may very well see the lows at 1.32 again. (USD has a lot of work to do between now and then).
Fundamentals:
We have the members of the federal reserve holding an informal emergency meeting on 14/02/22. It is reported from HSBC bank that they are forecasting that the federal reserve will raise interest rates by 0.5% in March and in whole raising interest rates by 1.5%.
We see central banks around the world already raising interest rates so we are confident that the US will follow suit which in turn may be the catalyst that we need for this trade to take us back down towards the lows at 1.32.
Coming out of the US next week we also have some high impacting data which we ideally want to suggest that the economy is continuing to run hot and grow. We want to see retail sales on the rise and unemployment figures to continue dropping lower.
It will be crucial to keep an eye on the high impacting data coming out of the UK next week. For our bearish bias to continue and to be strengthened we want to see signs that inflation is starting to slow down rather than increase.
It is also important to keep up to date with the tension in the Ukraine as this can have a massive impact on how quickly we expect to see this move however we will be focusing on more risk off currencies such as JPY to take advantage off any risk off sentiment that we are predicting to come in to the market.
Summary:
At present we have a bearish bias for Gbp/Usd both technically and fundamentally.
We will be both monitoring daily closes and also will be looking for bearish set ups on the 4hr and 1hr charts. Once something valid appears we will post these in the comments below so please ensure you like this post and follow to receive the update notifications.
As always trade safely and remember 1% is always enough.
The Fx Chartist
