In my last analysis on GU, I said we need to wait for the lower timeframe shift to the bearish market then only can look for the short opportunity and targeting the middle of the W pattern. However, the lower timeframe continues making HH and HL, no confirmation for me to take the short opportunity.
From the technical views:
1. From the weekly point of view, the price was reached the major weekly resistance, and if you look at the historical data, once the price reached this area, it will start to drop and we can expect the same scenario to happen again from this area.
2. From the daily perspective, the price created an overextended W pattern instead of the normal W pattern as I mentioned in the last analysis. When you have an overextended W pattern, most of the time price will retest the first leg of the W instead of the middle of the W, so we can targeting the first leg of the W as our downside target.
From the fundamental views:
1. The institutional is bearish bias on the GBP in the long term, but bullish in the short term.
2. But their bullish interest starts to end, and shifting it to the bearish bias. Because in the new data, net positions from -15k become -25k at the moment, -6.9k of the long positions were closed and another 3.4k of the short positions were added. So, we can expect GBPUSD will move to the downside soon.
Implication: During GBP move to the upside, long and short increased at the same time, which means they want to push the price higher and accumulate the short positions at the higher in order to sell at the higher price.
How to approach GBPUSD?
1. Waiting for the market shift to the bearish market on the lower timeframe perspectives.
2. After that, look for the short opportunity on the lower timeframe if your rules of the strategy are fulfilled.
3. Just short at the moment based on the weekly resistance is not a good idea, because the lower timeframe keeps creating HH and HL, it may easily break to the upside to hunt your SL and continue to move to the upside/downside.
The result might not follow my analysis, this analysis is based on the TA & FA perspectives.
Comment down below let me know your view on GBPUSD or which pairs you would like to me analyze in the future.
From the technical views:
1. From the weekly point of view, the price was reached the major weekly resistance, and if you look at the historical data, once the price reached this area, it will start to drop and we can expect the same scenario to happen again from this area.
2. From the daily perspective, the price created an overextended W pattern instead of the normal W pattern as I mentioned in the last analysis. When you have an overextended W pattern, most of the time price will retest the first leg of the W instead of the middle of the W, so we can targeting the first leg of the W as our downside target.
From the fundamental views:
1. The institutional is bearish bias on the GBP in the long term, but bullish in the short term.
2. But their bullish interest starts to end, and shifting it to the bearish bias. Because in the new data, net positions from -15k become -25k at the moment, -6.9k of the long positions were closed and another 3.4k of the short positions were added. So, we can expect GBPUSD will move to the downside soon.
Implication: During GBP move to the upside, long and short increased at the same time, which means they want to push the price higher and accumulate the short positions at the higher in order to sell at the higher price.
How to approach GBPUSD?
1. Waiting for the market shift to the bearish market on the lower timeframe perspectives.
2. After that, look for the short opportunity on the lower timeframe if your rules of the strategy are fulfilled.
3. Just short at the moment based on the weekly resistance is not a good idea, because the lower timeframe keeps creating HH and HL, it may easily break to the upside to hunt your SL and continue to move to the upside/downside.
The result might not follow my analysis, this analysis is based on the TA & FA perspectives.
Comment down below let me know your view on GBPUSD or which pairs you would like to me analyze in the future.