Well done to all those holding longs, not been a simple ride given the panic leg we have been experiencing.
Risk to my thesis is a very noisy week on the UK front, lets keep the conversation open here for all those trading this pair and discuss the macro side as well as TA.. it's very difficult to have conversations in the chat now as too many members.
Look forward to reading your comments and gl to all of those trading this week.
Macro reasoning: They're leaving the EU...
I shouldn't have to explain myself here, but I'll make a slight effort...the EU is PISSED! Do you really think Theresa can negotiate good terms with this?
They've LITERALLY said they are going to make an EXAMPLE of the UK....
When Parliament passed legislation to let Theresa go ahead with Article 50, the GBP fell! WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ABOUT SENTIMENT GOING INTO THIS???
Ask yourself this: Do you really see ANY chance of an Article 50 trigger, and later actual Brexit, being POSITIVE for the GBP?
If you're not convinced, go take a peek at the Daily chart on GU. What trend are we in? <--- There's my technical outlook
Sell the house, sell the car, and SHORT THE GBP!!!
All we have for the remainder of the month is the formality of announcing A50. To be crystal clear this is a short-term move in a mid-term range, not a change in trend.
I understand that we are entering into 'hiccup zone'. This last leg has been rather hesitant as i'm sure you've seen, played as expected with UK rather awkwardly entering into rate mode trading. No one will want to be bidding sterling for the long term (inline with your comments) so expect a rather fast leg up here, we have inflation data out later this week pressing a real threat on consumption with every other sector ticking up! . We have found a nice bottom here and 1.27 shouldn't be able to hide. This will be messy and a game changer short term as markets will be caught on the wrong side.