GBP status update, more downside ahead

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
We may expect more downside in October. I don't think we'll go down by too much before the election, but then we should see a sharp drop in November. The key to the sell-off in the base pairs will be the crash in Treasuries, and it is picking up pace right now.

I am convinced that the downtrend in the EUR-crosses will be correlated with the Treasuries, and the entire triplet (base pairs, Treasuries, EUR-crosses) will crash in perfect harmony, paving the way for the EUR to get below 0.90 at the bottom.

As usual, the end result (the base pairs at new multi-year lows, and Treasuries at half today's price) does not depend on the outcome of the Election or on anything else in the newsfeed, but it should be expected that the market will try create as much confusion, wiping out as many shorts as possible right before the crash happens. And when the Pound reaches 1.12..1.14, with 80..90% of bearish price action completed, the shorts will start entering trade in massive quantities, preparing ground for a good bounce next year.

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