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REPOST: GBPUSD: Post-FOMC Analysis - Setting Stage Wave 3 UP!

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
I'm not even sure I'm going to refer you to read my previous recent posts on this pair! Although in general they were correct, my predicted execution was not! When you have a cypher , and two Gartley's all pointing in the same direction among other factors, you'd think you'd have some confidence in the setup, right? But then they ALL get blown away! Tends to shake the confidence somewhat!

Well, so goes the life of a market analyst. Nothing to do but get back on the horse. Ok. So post-FOMC, the general sit-rep hasn't changed. In fact, the FOMC has given even more confidence that I am on the right path. Right now, prices are FINALLY on their way down in a wave (ii) correction. In wave counting, predicting end of wave 1's and the beginning of wave 2's is very difficult because there isn't any prior wave in the same cycle to base anything on. But I think I may have it right this time (3rd try!). IF I am correct, then this wave (ii) will unfold in a ABC zigzag down to the .786 retrace of the prior impulse wave. At the .786 level, prices will be retesting the former H&S pattern which had sent prices on it's way up (and yes, that is a SMILEY face because I caught that wave (i) up and took some nice profits! If you also did, then you deserve that smiley face, too!) And this will also setup a "786" trade (some call it a "Noble Trade" so named after a guy named Vic Noble who's students named it after him. My method and execution differs from him somewhat.)

Also, recent PA have setup a POTENTIAL bullish shark pattern (green0 that...tada!...also completes right at that .786 retrace. And no, .786 has nothing to do with the shark pattern. It's just confluence that it happens to also complete there in this case.

BIGGER PICTURE (Near Term)
Here's what I am expecting in the near-term bigger picture.What happens in wave (ii) is really of interest to me to set up my LONG buys for the coming wave ( iii             ).....
snapshot

SUMMARY & TRADE PLAN
So now that I'm assuming prices are falling back down in a wave (ii), what I'm looking to do is to setup my LONG orders for that area where I am expecting wave (ii) to end and wave ( iii             ) to begin. I'm already LONG from the previous H&S pattern that started prices up in the bigger wave C of the ABC corrective wave I've predicting to happen for almost a month now.. For the meantime, I have already placed SHORT orders to catch some pips on the way down for this wave (ii).

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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ChatchaiVong
a year ago
thank so much
Reply
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