stimichele

GBPUSD-Weekly Outlook

Short
FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
Hello Traders,


This week I expect a minor pullback from last weeks expansion. Relaxed week as there are not too many GBP/USD economic data reports, and there is a USD holiday on Monday. However, the economic reports USD have positive forecast for its reports and that would help GU move lower to my target. However on September 8th, BOE is have a monetary policy meeting hearing to talk about the economy of England and whether or not it is ready to cut back on stimulus which will be a bullish driving force for GBP and EUR is in a similar position.

Target 1 in in correlation to a daily order block/consolidation area with lots of liquidity via sell stops and SL. There is a FVG on futures chart, breaker block, and OTE entry point based on the fibo 0.79 retracement point from the original accumulation area of last week. After that I expect a rise to the monthly target.

From the 08/31 COT report, commercials have reduced long positions and added roughly 3500 short positions to GBP, in my opinion, as a hedge for a correction before a rise to the monthly target. Overall, my bias as well as the commercials are net LONG, if the fundamentals continue to line up with GBP strength and Dollar weakness.


Possible Bullish Catalyst:
1.BOE cuts back on stimulus support and hikes rates.
2. Positive economic sentiment and data reports for BOE.
2. reopening and lessened travel restrictions as well as rising vaccination rates.
4. Negative USD economic data reports

Possible Bearish Catalyst:
1. Positive USD economic data reports this week.
2. Negative consumer sentiment and data for GBP.
3. Delay in tapering process for GBP.
4. rise in delta cases in England and rising inflation figures.
5. US tapering stimulus or rate hikes.
Trade active: sell stops almost fully liquidated, will be waiting for a retest to the highs tomorrow (probably during london) to continue the sell off.
Trade closed: target reached: tp smashed!