ArnaudKleinveld
Long

GU 1.42975 by May 20 ~ 1000 pips

OANDA:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
Let's try it again. Last year I said 1.5 and later 1.7, this year I have learned to be modest and accept 1.42975 which is still a rough 1000 pips. Over the course of 5 months that is 200 pips per month and not really shocking at all. We might even reach there earlier around mid April already.

That is exactly when last year USD rallied its way to the top and announced the world with many UJ seasonality signals. Now almost one year further we finally witness the opening bell, however as I have become more sceptical than ever, I'll wait and see before I draw any conclusions.
Trade active: Let's go
Trade active: Opportunity is still valid. Could do a reentry here at 1.29575 or wait for retracement to complete..
Trade active: I see a Cup and Handle now. GU Long still very valid. Good entry around 1.317
Trade active: Back in the green zone. Let's see if the FEB will let the USD fall this time...
Trade closed: stop reached: Nevertheless expecting a rally to follow.
as long as the Brexit is not done, honestly it is a non-sense to be long gbp.
Reply
ArnaudKleinveld lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, Like many traders you have a limited view on the market. It is not about speculation only and the UK economy is not doing as bad as speculators are believing. With underlying macroeconomic buying pressure GBP bears could be in for a very nasty surprise. Let's wait until at least next week before we draw any conclusions.
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lapin_eliott ArnaudKleinveld
@ArnaudKleinveld, looks like quite urgent for usd bears and gbp bulls not to wait too long before drawing any conclusions ...
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Stopped out?
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@Solistica, Hi, yes. Never used the "Close: Stop Reached" tag because I am afraid one can no longer add additional activity records. Any idea?
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Solistica ArnaudKleinveld
@ArnaudKleinveld, Well the trade is technically invalid once it goes past your stop, no? Re-plan and publish a new idea. Just my opinion though not trying to criticize.
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@Solistica, Yes, I agree from a technical perspective the trade is closed but we also trade to make money so perhaps from a financial or other perspective we could keep trying for as long the opportunity isvalid and we comply with our risk management policies.
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you should keep an eye on TLT, latest developments hint that everything will go opposite against your usd downside view. if TLT is indeed in a H&S position, yields will surge and dollar will fly
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ArnaudKleinveld lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott Let's see. From experience I have learned that that hints can be very deceiving, so much, one would think they are often artificial. E.G. in a stop hunt you will see a lot of whipsaw patterns. To mitigate this risk I always use at least a multiple of signals.
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something very bad and impressive will occur on gbpusd, we are heading to 1.18 ... the good and unrealistic brexit is priced in now we are back to the usual apocalyptic rhetoric on bad brexit, and the market has just started the repricing of it.
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