GBPUSD: Sterling speculators are more focused on inflation than
Traders in the pound market are betting on continued inflation due to a slowdown in retail sales as the Bank of England nears its next interest rate decision. The pound has recently strengthened against the euro for four consecutive weeks, and has strengthened against all G10 currencies this year except for the stronger US dollar.
Investors have increased their bullish bets on the pound for the third consecutive week. This is reflected in an increase in net long positions in the pound, suggesting that the pound is likely to appreciate against the dollar. Net long positions increased by nearly $800 million, or 48%, to $2.24 billion, the biggest selloff in four months. This is in contrast to about $2.166 billion in short positions held by speculators just two months ago.
The latest economic data paints a mixed picture. Wage growth slowed, inflation rose to a surprising 4.0% in December from 3.9% the previous month, and retail sales fell sharply. These factors are contributing to expectations that the BoE may be slower to cut interest rates than the Fed or the European Central Bank (ECB). Market expectations suggest there is a roughly 50% chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, with a full rate cut expected in August. By contrast, traders expect the ECB to start cutting rates as early as April, and there is almost a 50% chance that the U.S. will cut rates in March. Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said the BoE needed evidence that inflation risks were easing to give it confidence to start cutting interest rates to support UK growth. Weak retail sales have slightly reduced the attractiveness of the pound, but it remains the second-best performing G10 currency at the start of the year.
Compared to other currencies, the pound has appreciated 4.7% against the Japanese yen and 3% against the Australian dollar so far this year. It also rose 2.8% against the Swiss franc, and Nomura analysts expect it to rise another 3%.
Investors have increased their bullish bets on the pound for the third consecutive week. This is reflected in an increase in net long positions in the pound, suggesting that the pound is likely to appreciate against the dollar. Net long positions increased by nearly $800 million, or 48%, to $2.24 billion, the biggest selloff in four months. This is in contrast to about $2.166 billion in short positions held by speculators just two months ago.
The latest economic data paints a mixed picture. Wage growth slowed, inflation rose to a surprising 4.0% in December from 3.9% the previous month, and retail sales fell sharply. These factors are contributing to expectations that the BoE may be slower to cut interest rates than the Fed or the European Central Bank (ECB). Market expectations suggest there is a roughly 50% chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, with a full rate cut expected in August. By contrast, traders expect the ECB to start cutting rates as early as April, and there is almost a 50% chance that the U.S. will cut rates in March. Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said the BoE needed evidence that inflation risks were easing to give it confidence to start cutting interest rates to support UK growth. Weak retail sales have slightly reduced the attractiveness of the pound, but it remains the second-best performing G10 currency at the start of the year.
Compared to other currencies, the pound has appreciated 4.7% against the Japanese yen and 3% against the Australian dollar so far this year. It also rose 2.8% against the Swiss franc, and Nomura analysts expect it to rise another 3%.
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