Gold records, US unemployment, oil status quo

Looking at the dynamics of stock markets, it seems that the global economy is experiencing its best times. At the same time, an analysis of macroeconomic statistics indicates that times are just the worst in history. Who is right? We propose to use gold and the dynamics of its prices as an arbiter. So yesterday, the asset rose above the $ 1800 mark (the highest prices since 2011). In our opinion, this is vivid evidence in favor of the fact that everything is far from being as good in the “Danish kingdom” as it seems, if you look at the dynamics of stock markets.

Recall that gold is traditionally considered a safe haven asset and a sharp increase in demand for it (the inflow of funds into gold ETFs this year has already exceeded the maximum levels recorded in 2009) is one of the signs that investors are scared. And given that gold has approached historical highs, investors are apparently very scared.

Another reason for concern, the markets may receive today after the publication of data on jobless claims. The increase in the number of unemployed will be a serious reason for the growth of fears. In our opinion, this is quite a likely scenario, given that many states are curtailing programs to open economies.

According to official data, US oil reserves grew by 5.6 million barrels for the week, but given that they fell by 7.2 million barrels last week, markets did not use this data as a reason to sell the asset. In general, the status quo in the oil market is maintained, and we continue to recommend sell oil at current prices with small stops.

As for the other positions, we note that the dollar came close to its lower limits against most currencies, so the sale of EURUSD, GBPUSD or AUDUSD seems to us to be great deals today. But with small stops, since a breakdown of the lower border of the dollar could provoke massive selloffs.