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The 2003 to 2011 run-up of gold from ~$300 to ~$1850 retraced partially to a swing low in 2015 of around $1050 (wave (A)). After this, there has been some rather unconvincing bullish behaviour. I deleted my wave counts within the wave B triangle (to declutter) but they are 5,3,5 waves or "3s". Within the 5 sub-wave moves (in the 5, 3, 5 moves) I can see truncations (or failures to reach normal wave extensions) and wave failures (breaking the EW retracement rules). Afetr such a deep and sustained price drop, the correction failed to reach the 0.382 retracement level to recover some of the losses. Clearly price has an easier time moving down as compared to dragging itself upwards. Even though the upward price movements were quite steep at times ($1050 to $1377 in about 10 months) these show no clear signs of being impulse waves in the upwards direction.
What I am expecting is that we recently completed a larger degree wave B and have started the wave C correction down (triangles only appear in wave 4, B, and in the final X wave (I am not grouping wedges in with triangles e.g. a leading first wave diagonal).
Because the run-up in 2003 to 2011 was around 600% in what has traditionally been a relatively stable commodity it would seem that we can reasonably expect prices to return to pre-run-up levels (there is a tendency for this to happen following a speculative bubble). If Wave C extends 1:1 of wave A then we might reach $500 an ounce. Early days in wave 3 down still, although, if you look back at the wave 3 drop in wave A you can see that the drop was deep and steep. In all, the total 44% drop took ~4 years.
Scenario 2, that I view as less likely, is that we are about to finish a wave 2 retracement in a new impulse wave move up. Against this view: I can't seem to find a plausible way to subdivide the A wave into 3 waves - it simply has no significant counter-trend move around mid-span. 3 corrective waves ( ABC ) would need to be present for the correction to have completed so that we can start a new bullish impulse wave. For that view: wave 1 seems to be more hesitant while waves 3 and 5 are strongly impulsive, so the 2015 to present move could potentially be the basis of a new upwards price move - although it seems far too early.
I recently head about an expat that requested his salary paid in gold 0.09% and held all his savings in gold. From my reading of the situation, I would be less than comfortable if all my savings were in gold. Protect your funds and good luck everyone.
The 2003 to 2011 run-up of gold from ~$300 to ~$1850 retraced partially to a swing low in 2015 of around $1050 (wave (A)). After this, there has been some rather unconvincing bullish behaviour. I deleted my wave counts within the wave B triangle (to declutter) but they are 5,3,5 waves or "3s". Within the 5 sub-wave moves (in the 5, 3, 5 moves) I can see truncations (or failures to reach normal wave extensions) and wave failures (breaking the EW retracement rules). Afetr such a deep and sustained price drop, the correction failed to reach the 0.382 retracement level to recover some of the losses. Clearly price has an easier time moving down as compared to dragging itself upwards. Even though the upward price movements were quite steep at times ($1050 to $1377 in about 10 months) these show no clear signs of being impulse waves in the upwards direction.
What I am expecting is that we recently completed a larger degree wave B and have started the wave C correction down (triangles only appear in wave 4, B, and in the final X wave (I am not grouping wedges in with triangles e.g. a leading first wave diagonal).
Because the run-up in 2003 to 2011 was around 600% in what has traditionally been a relatively stable commodity it would seem that we can reasonably expect prices to return to pre-run-up levels (there is a tendency for this to happen following a speculative bubble). If Wave C extends 1:1 of wave A then we might reach $500 an ounce. Early days in wave 3 down still, although, if you look back at the wave 3 drop in wave A you can see that the drop was deep and steep. In all, the total 44% drop took ~4 years.
Scenario 2, that I view as less likely, is that we are about to finish a wave 2 retracement in a new impulse wave move up. Against this view: I can't seem to find a plausible way to subdivide the A wave into 3 waves - it simply has no significant counter-trend move around mid-span. 3 corrective waves ( ABC ) would need to be present for the correction to have completed so that we can start a new bullish impulse wave. For that view: wave 1 seems to be more hesitant while waves 3 and 5 are strongly impulsive, so the 2015 to present move could potentially be the basis of a new upwards price move - although it seems far too early.
I recently head about an expat that requested his salary paid in gold 0.09% and held all his savings in gold. From my reading of the situation, I would be less than comfortable if all my savings were in gold. Protect your funds and good luck everyone.