Here's what i think the cycles really look like. I don't like it when people just arbitrarily pick a place and start counting equidistant T+21 and T+35 forever and call it "The Cycle".
Instead i've gone ahead and arbitrarily picked my own dates and have drawn my own sort of equidistant T+21 and T+35's.
Believe what you want in the end. I've come to the conclusion that this is what the cycle looks like and not exactly like how everyone else visualizing it. I've used option flow data to find anomalous option data and based some of these cycles on those, on the 2 ATM offerings, DFV's exercise as well as the 2 market buy ins that happened sometime in Feb/March. Tldr: I didn't pull these out of my arse.
I'd love to sit and write my whole thesis here on how i've come up with this, but because i've in fact already written it elsewhere, i'm just going to link to there...
www.reddit.com/r/Sup...heory_that_predicts/
www.reddit.com/r/Sup...lysis_possibly_what/
I'd paste this content here but the format would break a lot so... if you wanna know how i come up with this stuff, just read those 2 links or whatever. Anyway i think that people are counting T+21 and T+35 from the wrong place and are also too adamant about things happening on exactly T+21 and T+35 where that shouldn't be people's expectation. The T+'s are deadlines. People should be expecting things to happen BEFORE a deadline, not exactly on the day of the deadline and that's the mistake everyone is making when trying to visualize T+21 and T+35.
In reality, the cycles are much more dynamic than people are making them up to be. There's things like ATM offerings for more shares happening which just disrupt any existing cycles. For whatever reason, people aren't even taking these real life / fundamental things in consideration when counting T+21 and T+35. It's like doing raw technical analysis on a company you don't know, yes the technical analysis might show a bullish wedge, but you didn't consider the real life news that the company released saying they're going bankrupt... So yeah, if you don't factor these things in, you're just counting T+21 and T+35 from random meaningless points on a chart to other random meaningless points on the chart.
My visualization of the cycles whilst looking complete, it's really not. There's a lot more micro cycles i would've loved to add, but the chart would be come too convoluted for anyone to understand. The idea however is that within the T+35's, there's also multiple T+21's ending. You can identify these by the Short at T+18 and cover at T+21 patterns all over the chart. You'll see a lot of random large downward daily spikes, then an equal spike 1-3 days later which is the net 0 short cover. The only reason they drop the price here is to kick the can with options by hiding FTD's in far OTM puts in the $0.5 - $5 range (and maybe in the $0.5 - $50 range) then proceed to cover their net 0 short a few days later.
The behavior of the shorts is extremely visible on the chart, you just need to be able to identify their patterns correctly and i think i've for the most part done that.
Instead i've gone ahead and arbitrarily picked my own dates and have drawn my own sort of equidistant T+21 and T+35's.
Believe what you want in the end. I've come to the conclusion that this is what the cycle looks like and not exactly like how everyone else visualizing it. I've used option flow data to find anomalous option data and based some of these cycles on those, on the 2 ATM offerings, DFV's exercise as well as the 2 market buy ins that happened sometime in Feb/March. Tldr: I didn't pull these out of my arse.
I'd love to sit and write my whole thesis here on how i've come up with this, but because i've in fact already written it elsewhere, i'm just going to link to there...
www.reddit.com/r/Sup...heory_that_predicts/
www.reddit.com/r/Sup...lysis_possibly_what/
I'd paste this content here but the format would break a lot so... if you wanna know how i come up with this stuff, just read those 2 links or whatever. Anyway i think that people are counting T+21 and T+35 from the wrong place and are also too adamant about things happening on exactly T+21 and T+35 where that shouldn't be people's expectation. The T+'s are deadlines. People should be expecting things to happen BEFORE a deadline, not exactly on the day of the deadline and that's the mistake everyone is making when trying to visualize T+21 and T+35.
In reality, the cycles are much more dynamic than people are making them up to be. There's things like ATM offerings for more shares happening which just disrupt any existing cycles. For whatever reason, people aren't even taking these real life / fundamental things in consideration when counting T+21 and T+35. It's like doing raw technical analysis on a company you don't know, yes the technical analysis might show a bullish wedge, but you didn't consider the real life news that the company released saying they're going bankrupt... So yeah, if you don't factor these things in, you're just counting T+21 and T+35 from random meaningless points on a chart to other random meaningless points on the chart.
My visualization of the cycles whilst looking complete, it's really not. There's a lot more micro cycles i would've loved to add, but the chart would be come too convoluted for anyone to understand. The idea however is that within the T+35's, there's also multiple T+21's ending. You can identify these by the Short at T+18 and cover at T+21 patterns all over the chart. You'll see a lot of random large downward daily spikes, then an equal spike 1-3 days later which is the net 0 short cover. The only reason they drop the price here is to kick the can with options by hiding FTD's in far OTM puts in the $0.5 - $5 range (and maybe in the $0.5 - $50 range) then proceed to cover their net 0 short a few days later.
The behavior of the shorts is extremely visible on the chart, you just need to be able to identify their patterns correctly and i think i've for the most part done that.