Gold Weekly Analysis: Still Downtrend As Long As Below 1835.00
After a big crash in the last week, Gold has successfully recovered fully. Right now, Gold is holding above the last week’s flash crash price level. It’s a bit good sign for the gold, at least all the big investors are not biased by the crashes.
Inflation was the only market mover data for the last week. Theoretically, USD was supposed to drop because the inflation report was mixed, and Dollar Index was in the long-term resistance level. Such mixed fundamental reports were not enough to beak such a strong resistance level of the Dollar Index. Gold and Dollar Index has a negative co-relation. Here is the Dollar Index Chart.
What About The Next-Week Market Mover Data?
There are some big market mover data’s are due to publish.
1. Core Retail Sales
2. Retail Sales
3. FED Chair Powell Speaks
4. FOMC Minute Meeting
Among the market mover data’s Powell speaks and FOMC will be the real trend changer. Retail sales and core retail sales will have little impact nearly 50/80 pips move on Gold, I think nothing more than that. Even, retail sales and core retail sales can’t even change strong trends rather it helps to follow trends if reports favor them.
As the market is in a downtrend, if retail sales and core retail sales rise, Gold has more room to drop. If retail sales and core retail sales drop and can’t meet the expectation gold will test near resistance level 1800/1810 price zone. I don’t think only negative retail sales and core retail sales reports are enough to break above the 1835/1840 price zone. If the reports come mixed, Gold will spike above and will drop again as the trend is still down.
Can any market mover data’s break 1835/1840 price zone in next week?
Yes, it can. And there is a high chance as well in the next week. There are two market mover data that are to be published in the next week that can turmoil the market and can change the trend. Powell's speech and FOMC can change anything.
If we see some previous FOMC reports, the statement was a bit hawkish than dovish. Recent job market reports were economically supportive. Inflation was mixed though it has not increased expectedly. And if the next week’s retail sales and core retail sales come positive, there is a high chance FED and Powell will deliver a hawkish statement in the next week. So, fundamentally Gold has chances to drop again.
But the alternative scenario also may happen. If FED don’t hind any rate hike position or they refuse to hike bank rates in the near-term schedule and any statement like they are very concerned about economic growth or they point pandemic may cause another economic or financial crisis and any kind of dovish statement, then Gold will break above 1835/1840 price zone immediately.
So, it is very important for the gold traders who care about fundamental news and reports like me and professional traders.
What Does The Technical Analysis Say?
Personally, I don’t use too many technical indicators and tools but only price action. My chart is very simple and easy to read.
Technically, from the present price zone, Gold is holding below the trend line. But the Daily chart shows Gold has formed a full bullish candle. Technically, Gold has a chance to go up in the next week and hold upside bias till the 1805/1810.00 price zone (Descending Trend Line) through 1795.00 looking for immediate resistance.
Breaking above the 1810/1815 price zone may open the door for the 1835/1840 price zone. Above 1840.00 price zone, our final target to the upside 1900/1910 price zone. Breaking above 1840.00 price zone, gold needs pure dovish FED statement, otherwise, it is not possible, I think.
On The Other hand, technically, gold still holding below the trendline. So, it may drop from the present level as well or it may drop from the near-term resistance level 1795.00 price zone. Near-term first downside target 1725.00 price zone. Breaking below the 1725 price zone will open the door for 1685/1680 price one.
1680/1685 is really a critical support level. In case if we see gold breaks below the 1680.00 price zone, our long-term downside target 1 is the 1550.00 price zone and finally the 1450 price zone.
If you think my analysis and charts are helping you, please like, comment and share. Thanks, everybody.
Inflation was the only market mover data for the last week. Theoretically, USD was supposed to drop because the inflation report was mixed, and Dollar Index was in the long-term resistance level. Such mixed fundamental reports were not enough to beak such a strong resistance level of the Dollar Index. Gold and Dollar Index has a negative co-relation. Here is the Dollar Index Chart.
What About The Next-Week Market Mover Data?
There are some big market mover data’s are due to publish.
1. Core Retail Sales
2. Retail Sales
3. FED Chair Powell Speaks
4. FOMC Minute Meeting
Among the market mover data’s Powell speaks and FOMC will be the real trend changer. Retail sales and core retail sales will have little impact nearly 50/80 pips move on Gold, I think nothing more than that. Even, retail sales and core retail sales can’t even change strong trends rather it helps to follow trends if reports favor them.
As the market is in a downtrend, if retail sales and core retail sales rise, Gold has more room to drop. If retail sales and core retail sales drop and can’t meet the expectation gold will test near resistance level 1800/1810 price zone. I don’t think only negative retail sales and core retail sales reports are enough to break above the 1835/1840 price zone. If the reports come mixed, Gold will spike above and will drop again as the trend is still down.
Can any market mover data’s break 1835/1840 price zone in next week?
Yes, it can. And there is a high chance as well in the next week. There are two market mover data that are to be published in the next week that can turmoil the market and can change the trend. Powell's speech and FOMC can change anything.
If we see some previous FOMC reports, the statement was a bit hawkish than dovish. Recent job market reports were economically supportive. Inflation was mixed though it has not increased expectedly. And if the next week’s retail sales and core retail sales come positive, there is a high chance FED and Powell will deliver a hawkish statement in the next week. So, fundamentally Gold has chances to drop again.
But the alternative scenario also may happen. If FED don’t hind any rate hike position or they refuse to hike bank rates in the near-term schedule and any statement like they are very concerned about economic growth or they point pandemic may cause another economic or financial crisis and any kind of dovish statement, then Gold will break above 1835/1840 price zone immediately.
So, it is very important for the gold traders who care about fundamental news and reports like me and professional traders.
What Does The Technical Analysis Say?
Personally, I don’t use too many technical indicators and tools but only price action. My chart is very simple and easy to read.
Technically, from the present price zone, Gold is holding below the trend line. But the Daily chart shows Gold has formed a full bullish candle. Technically, Gold has a chance to go up in the next week and hold upside bias till the 1805/1810.00 price zone (Descending Trend Line) through 1795.00 looking for immediate resistance.
Breaking above the 1810/1815 price zone may open the door for the 1835/1840 price zone. Above 1840.00 price zone, our final target to the upside 1900/1910 price zone. Breaking above 1840.00 price zone, gold needs pure dovish FED statement, otherwise, it is not possible, I think.
On The Other hand, technically, gold still holding below the trendline. So, it may drop from the present level as well or it may drop from the near-term resistance level 1795.00 price zone. Near-term first downside target 1725.00 price zone. Breaking below the 1725 price zone will open the door for 1685/1680 price one.
1680/1685 is really a critical support level. In case if we see gold breaks below the 1680.00 price zone, our long-term downside target 1 is the 1550.00 price zone and finally the 1450 price zone.
If you think my analysis and charts are helping you, please like, comment and share. Thanks, everybody.
Comment:
We have updated our gold chart and analysis ahead of CPI (Inflation Report)
Comment:
We have updated our gold chart. Let's check it out here. Don't miss the next opportunity....
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