Hi Team,
Last week my analysis for Gold was on point - we saw a big breakdown after the much higher than anticipated Aug Non-Farm Payroll result.
This week I am expecting a retracement. We saw rejection of the daily ascending resistance (see chart) and will, I expect, move up to our original sell zone. I do not expect a break above the weekly descending channel resistance.
From a chart analysis/Wave analysis stand point therefore, we look good for a Bear run on Gold.
The issue will be news. We are all aware of general (international) market sentiment, and that can make things less predictable. So with that said, the news this week:
Tuesday 9th Aug at 1230: Non Farm productivity - Look for a higher number than -4.5% (AKA closer to 0) to indicate bullish pressure. If lower, we may see a push to higher entries.
Tuesday 9th Aug at 1230: Unit labour cost. This is expected to be lower than previous which is bad (Bearish) for the USD, and therefore bullish for gold.
Overall impression for Tuesday 9th Aug: Expect Gold to climb toward previous sell zone.
Wednesday 10th Aug at 1230: This is the "big" news day this week. The main two things to look for are the CPI month on month (MoM) and year on year (YoY). Without over complicating things for you, a HIGH number is good for the USD, and therefore bearish for Gold.
The FED has maintained a very aggressive stance regarding inflation, and I would be unsurprised to see a figure higher than anticipated. In that scenario, I would expect a significant drop on Gold - this time looking for it to break daily ascending correction.
Overall impression for Wednesday 10th Aug: Look for a big impulse down on news release. If it goes against us, expect repeated rejection from descending weekly resistance.
Thursday 11th August at 1230: Several moderate impact USD news events, but none likely to contribute significantly to the impulse commenced on the 10th. IJC and PPI are set to be approximately equivalent.
Overall impression for Thursday 11th Aug: No major changed expected.
Friday 12th August at 1400: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI)
This is high impact news. The current anticipated reading is slightly higher than last months recorded, and therefore likely to be bullish for USD. This will play out in one of three ways:
- If we started a bear run on Wednesday, look for continuation and break below the trend line noted on the chart.
- If we started a bull run Wednesday, look for rejection from descending weekly resistance
- If this reading is lower than expected, we may get another bounce up from the ascending daily correction support noted on the chart
Overall impression for the week: I expect a climb to the recent sell zone before news on Wednesday pushes the price of Gold down, a move expected to continue after news on Friday.
I will post closer time-frame set ups over the next couple of days, so please like follow, share and subscribe!
Good luck, Trade safe
DrBear
Last week my analysis for Gold was on point - we saw a big breakdown after the much higher than anticipated Aug Non-Farm Payroll result.
This week I am expecting a retracement. We saw rejection of the daily ascending resistance (see chart) and will, I expect, move up to our original sell zone. I do not expect a break above the weekly descending channel resistance.
From a chart analysis/Wave analysis stand point therefore, we look good for a Bear run on Gold.
The issue will be news. We are all aware of general (international) market sentiment, and that can make things less predictable. So with that said, the news this week:
Tuesday 9th Aug at 1230: Non Farm productivity - Look for a higher number than -4.5% (AKA closer to 0) to indicate bullish pressure. If lower, we may see a push to higher entries.
Tuesday 9th Aug at 1230: Unit labour cost. This is expected to be lower than previous which is bad (Bearish) for the USD, and therefore bullish for gold.
Overall impression for Tuesday 9th Aug: Expect Gold to climb toward previous sell zone.
Wednesday 10th Aug at 1230: This is the "big" news day this week. The main two things to look for are the CPI month on month (MoM) and year on year (YoY). Without over complicating things for you, a HIGH number is good for the USD, and therefore bearish for Gold.
The FED has maintained a very aggressive stance regarding inflation, and I would be unsurprised to see a figure higher than anticipated. In that scenario, I would expect a significant drop on Gold - this time looking for it to break daily ascending correction.
Overall impression for Wednesday 10th Aug: Look for a big impulse down on news release. If it goes against us, expect repeated rejection from descending weekly resistance.
Thursday 11th August at 1230: Several moderate impact USD news events, but none likely to contribute significantly to the impulse commenced on the 10th. IJC and PPI are set to be approximately equivalent.
Overall impression for Thursday 11th Aug: No major changed expected.
Friday 12th August at 1400: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI)
This is high impact news. The current anticipated reading is slightly higher than last months recorded, and therefore likely to be bullish for USD. This will play out in one of three ways:
- If we started a bear run on Wednesday, look for continuation and break below the trend line noted on the chart.
- If we started a bull run Wednesday, look for rejection from descending weekly resistance
- If this reading is lower than expected, we may get another bounce up from the ascending daily correction support noted on the chart
Overall impression for the week: I expect a climb to the recent sell zone before news on Wednesday pushes the price of Gold down, a move expected to continue after news on Friday.
I will post closer time-frame set ups over the next couple of days, so please like follow, share and subscribe!
Good luck, Trade safe
DrBear
Trade active:
There was a volatility spike up during CPI news today, which may have hit SL on some of you. Still expecting bearish momentum, which we should see on Friday.
