DOW INDUSTRIALS - % STOCKS > KEY EARNINGS LEVEL

I've been doing this analysis by hand since April 28, 2015 in a spreadsheet at Google.

4/28/2015 1:30 PM 46.70% 53.30% 18111 17960
4/29/2015 9:44 AM 40.00% 60.00% 18083 17975 PFE, MRK reported
4/29/2015 2:26 PM 46.70% 53.30% 18055 17975
4/30/2015 9:55 AM 46.70% 53.30% 17968 17970
4/30/2015 10:47 AM 43.30% 56.70% 17930 17977
4/30/2015 3:54 PM 40.00% 60.00% 17876 17977
5/1/2015 10:30 AM 46.70% 53.30% 17977 17977
5/4/2015 10:47 AM 43.30% 56.70% 18102 18052 Apple rally faded right near KEY LEVEL.
5/4/2015 3:50 PM 43.30% 56.70% 18070 18038
5/5/2015 4:00 PM 40% 60% 17928 18039
5/6/2015 11:40 AM 40% 60% 17,865.67 18039 Biggest spread from the KEY LEVEL I've seen. Bond mkt and US DOLLAR tumbling

I've also added "% of stocks above their 50 day moving average" since I think that might approximate this indicator and to just see how helpful it is and to learn.

I've noticed so far that the market has traded quite closely to the KEY LEVEL so far.

Note we are right on the 66-day moving average, which is 1-quarter of data, which certainly is the time frame of the distance between earnings reports.

I put "short" on here because the DOW is below the KEY EARNINGS LEVEL of 18039.

How you want to trade it is up to you: I think you can execute right "at" the KEY level by selling a rally up to it and risking 1 average range. The target might be just 1 average range also. That is just one method of trading this. You could certainly trade this any way you see fit. The key is knowing if the market is being "accumulated" or "distributed" and as it is now, it is being "distributed" since we are below the average KEY LEVEL. It shows that people are disappointed with the earnings reports and the forecasts for the coming quarter.

Cheers.

Tim 12:02PM EST May, 6, 2015