Intel | Fundamental Analysis

Intel will have another chance to breathe life into its dropping stock when it reports its third-quarter results on Thursday, Oct. 21. The chip giant's stock has lagged the broader market this year, though it started brightly, as problems in the personal computer and data center business intensified due to stiff competition from companies like Advanced Micro Devices.

Let's take a look at what we can expect from Intel's upcoming quarterly report and decide if the company can show strong enough results and outlook to tilt investor sentiment in its favor.

Intel's second-quarter results, released in July, were better than expected. The company's adjusted earnings of $1.28 per share rose 12% year-over-year and easily beat Wall Street's forecast of $1.06 per share. The company's earnings were up 2% from a year earlier to $18.5 billion. Moreover, the corporation also upgraded its full-year earnings by $1 billion to $73.5 billion and raised its earnings per share forecast by $0.20 to $4.80 per share.

But that wasn't enough to change investor sentiment, because a closer look reveals that competition is becoming a real thorn in the chipmaker's side. For example, the company expects the third-quarter adjusted gross margin to be 55%, a significant drop from 59.2% in the second quarter. At the same time, Intel's data center group revenue fell 9% year over year to $6.5 billion as both shipments and average purchase prices declined.

A 6% year-over-year increase in client computing group revenue to $10.1 billion was accompanied by a drop in notebook and desktop processor prices. More specifically, notebook ASP prices were down 17% year-over-year and desktop ASP prices were down 5% - the result of Intel's strategy to lower its processor prices in order to sell more units.

Thus, Intel needs not only to show good results but also to demonstrate that it can again stand up to AMD, gaining more and more market share. Intel's full-year forecast, however, does not indicate that this will be the case. The company's fourth-quarter revenue is forecasted to fall 8.6 percent year over year to $18.25 billion, and earnings are expected to fall to $1.01 per share from $1.52 per share a year ago.

By comparison, Intel may do much better in the third quarter, with revenue and earnings expected to be flat year-over-year. All of this designates that Intel stock may lag the broad market for the rest of the year. But investors shouldn't lose sight of the fact that some favorable factors on the horizon could breathe life into the stock in 2022 and beyond.

Wall Street expects Intel's sales to decline to slow in 2022 and its earnings to remain at 2021 levels. In 2023, analysts expect Intel to regain its momentum and increase earnings slightly.

However, don't be surprised if Intel changes its fortunes sooner, as the company intends to step up its product development game. According to the company's development plan, it will move to a 7-nanometer manufacturing process in the second half of 2022. The smaller node size suggests Intel's chips will become more competitive. This is because the transistors in a chip made using a smaller node are more tightly packed together, resulting in better performance and greater efficiency.

The company promises a 20 percent improvement in performance per watt over current-generation chips when it releases processors based on the 7-nm process technology, codenamed Intel 4. Then, in the second half of 2023, Intel plans to release an advanced version of its 7nm chips, which it claims could be 18% more powerful than Intel 4 chips. That will be followed by the Intel 20A architecture in 2024 when the company is expected to produce chips based on the 5-nm node.

All of this suggests that Intel is on its way to consistently improve its manufacturing process, which should help it bridge the technology gap with AMD. So Intel may eventually regain its spirit and become a profitable investment, but investors will have to wait patiently for this turnaround, as it may take some time. The good thing is that patient investors willing to bet on Intel's transformation can buy this technology company's stock at just 12 times its forward earnings, which could prove to be a good deal in the long run as its fortunes begin to rise.