Starting to run into some support. Seasonally we are approaching lows as well in November.
For me time to start looking into a long position IMHO.
We are approaching the lower end of the trendchannel (valid since early this year), however there is an ups-sloping trendline that formed since the previous lows in September. I am also expecting this to be much of a grind and a bullish position will require some patience as bearish news dominate the market. Lot's of rain has provided good flowering in Brazil, but overall drought concerns remain as reservoir levels are still remaining on all time low levels.
Despite worries of global deficits, physical flow out of Vietnam and Brazil is quite steady with multi year high export volumes out of Brazil in October. IMHO this is more supportive to the market than anything else. Roasters cover what they need in fear of shortage.
Spreads on the ICE and in London remain depressed, indicating no sight of a shortage....
Overall mixed signals and no buy signals in place, but as we go lower I grow more bullish. In the meantime, good entry to start reversing hence I am going neutral IMHO
For me time to start looking into a long position IMHO.
We are approaching the lower end of the trendchannel (valid since early this year), however there is an ups-sloping trendline that formed since the previous lows in September. I am also expecting this to be much of a grind and a bullish position will require some patience as bearish news dominate the market. Lot's of rain has provided good flowering in Brazil, but overall drought concerns remain as reservoir levels are still remaining on all time low levels.
Despite worries of global deficits, physical flow out of Vietnam and Brazil is quite steady with multi year high export volumes out of Brazil in October. IMHO this is more supportive to the market than anything else. Roasters cover what they need in fear of shortage.
Spreads on the ICE and in London remain depressed, indicating no sight of a shortage....
Overall mixed signals and no buy signals in place, but as we go lower I grow more bullish. In the meantime, good entry to start reversing hence I am going neutral IMHO
