I have been discussing this for over a month, the long anyways....price is starting to hit resistance. I think it will break but should retrace before doing so.
This is my trade idea.
Tried some ghost price action...ominous.
I was stopped out on that last attempt but the technical picture is getting stronger! I have re-entered.
note: this is end of day data, that's why the profit/loss tool is in the particular place it is. Current price as I post this.
This is a scalp, a little less than 2:1 RR
I will most likely be out by that 50% Fib, my fav location. Quick to break even, quick...
Arabica Coffee (KC) surged almost 3% higher yesterday, ending a week of consolidation and resuming a rally that began roughly 3 weeks ago. Significantly, KC broke descending wedge resistance (on the weekly chart in the link below) yesterday, along with the psychologically key 1.3 round figure level. KC's climb yesterday arguably completes a shallow shoulder in...
.... doubt it will happen this year. last year we had three severe frost scare days/weekend.
IMHO this market is where it is merely because of cautious buyers ahead of the season.
I see rangebound through July and if no frost happens more downward potential.
Technically speaking, the bull market appears to be over.
• Entry at completion of Batt pattern @127.27
• Double bottom formation at batt completion price further supports bullish signal.
• Fundamentals support long term bullish position due to draught concerns, similar to 2016:
Market taking a breather after the recent rally. I would think that the market is taking a break from the rally for now. Corrective levels below are the 7 day MA at 164ish, 20 day MA at 158 and 100 day MA along with the lower line of the upsloping trend channel.
Option vol went out on the move, but commercials seems to be selling as physical prices in Brazil are...
Looks down to the 140 area for a test. However as long as the orange or blue trends hold, the upwards trend is still intact IMHO.
short call spreads above 165 in Dec or January might be a good idea. I would buy any puts as downside seems limited for the moment and option volatility might decline during a sell off diminishing returns on long option strategies....
Coffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ).
Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line).
If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal.
KC put in its strongest weekly performance in about a month, reinforcing the line in the sand at the 180 horizontal support zone as seen in the attached chart. The 180 level also coincides with the uptrend support line connecting the low earlier in the week with the January 2014 low. Based on the renewed upward momentum these last few days, and the apparent...