JJMa

KEY - Head and Shoulders Potential Move -ve 38%

TSX:KEY   KEYERA CORP
I own this stock, and I'd prefer not to sell, I have to accept that price can move on technicals if there is a catalyst. Could be some tax-loss harvesting, vaccine troubles, insert reason here. RSI showing bearish divergence. Would prefer that the neckline is tested in the next month or so, at 20, which presents a good buy price to add, of course with the yield climbing as the stock goes down and if it goes down, anywhere between 18-22 is a sweet spot for my account as long as price does not collapse and the fundamentals remain decent. If the neckline fails to protect this stock can go all the way down to 15 and change which would represent a measured move to complete the head and shoulders pattern, and something bad happening (excuse). Also earnings report in February can potentially cause some volatility here.
I will have to look at other midstream companies to determine if this is an outside case for the industry. If it is systemic, then I might be seeing something similar with other names, ENB and PPL . Oil and Gas have done quite well in the last month and a half, so if the trend continues this will only be a pattern that does not manifest most likely.

Trade active:
Already have an order at about 20 for 25-30 shares, will monitor the situation and may adjust the order. The next week or two will let us know, overhead resistance remains at 24.30-50 where I would imagine distribution occurring until it is broken - in which case, possibly just buy in anticipation for "normalization" of the economy as the vaccine rolls out.
Comment: RSI showing a fair bit of bearish divergence on the 4hr
Comment: Could be worth moving buy stop up to 22-22.70 where a a cluster of 4hr EMAs should provide support in the vicinity, should we get a couple of days of down movement. Already backing off of distribution level outlined above.
Comment: Gaps to be made aware of in case of additional movement to the downside
Comment: Current price 23.35 - Buy stop adjusted up to 22.75 for 23 shares. Dividends come in tomorrow so might adjust, but considering another instrument CIC for a better yield and lower volatility. Might be worth it to wait on even lower prices for oil equities in case we have a counter-trend down for a couple of weeks. Will see what the morning brings.
Trade active: Price did gap up, and I thought my idea was BTFO'ed but price has reversed and is heading close to my buy territory.


Have an order for 24 shares at 22.75 > which is technically below my cost basis so far, might just get it over with in the next couple of days if that price target is not hit. 8.21% yield is beyond healthy for my account. Ex-dividend is near the 21st, and probably best to buy on a downtrend while it is available.
Trade closed: stop reached: done > just added 25 shares 23.39 > looking forward to next year, have a bit of work to do with the American side of my portfolio regarding ET and OIH

> yes I am impatient...
Comment: Of interest to Canadian users of tradingview that are following, trading and investing in Canadian dollar denominated assets > yes we have a wonderful 15-minute time delay, but https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/KEY tsx money has you covered and you can follow recent trades - very inside baseball
Comment: Feeling at bit more comfortable with the purchase > ex-dividend approaches 21st of DEC, which might put a buy-side support on this one. Oil going up doesn't hurt either.

TSX Money has it changing hands now at 23.59 > trading view without a premium add-on has a 15 minute delay.

Head and shoulders can still play out, but it can also be negated. Sometimes, you buy when you see a decent dip and let the chips fall where they may.

Comments

I will probably regret this, but oil continues to move up with strength > Trailing buy order for 25 shares placed, delta is .10 just in case it decides to go down again, but short timeframe has possible double bottom at 23.29 if the stock moves up from here.
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Lovely chart, any more analysis coming?
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JJMa Investroyllc
@Investroyllc, I will look into the fundamentals at this point, will add comments. Thanks for checking my work. Any ideas of your own on this stock and or company?
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@JJMa, We're more of Forex guys, but I'll definitely look at Keyera's 10-K. Technically, it's definitely going down, but I'm seeing more and more people going bullish on oil for the next year (expecting 62$) and this can consequently cause the company's stock to break the resistance. As of right now, I would be waiting for that double top to form and make adjustments if needed! Hope this explains what I think.
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JJMa Investroyllc
@Investroyllc, Yes, for me it's a buy and hold, as we are possibly in the beginning stages of a commodity bull market, at worst I can see this going down to 18 to close the gap, but given what's happened over the last four weeks, it would have to be a significant macro-event imho. I am hoping to add below my cost average near 22.70, but even that might not happen with oil price action.
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JJMa Investroyllc
@Investroyllc, Oddly enough, I scalped the EUR/USD today for about 6 pips while waiting to see the pattern take shape on this. I'm thinking it's short term bullishness is over for now and we go down a bit, next support would be in the vicinity of 22.70 where I intend to add a few shares if not earlier at a higher price if I have to.
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