This market has been a mystery to me because while BTC and ETH were making impressive moves, this market stayed quiet. That kind of behavior is always suspect because often it is a sign of relative weakness, but these coins obviously cannot be compared that way. As I have written about when comparing ETH and BTC , these markets emulate more of a sector rotation behavior meaning order flow is selective and favors one market over another as opposed to follow the leader where one market goes and the smaller ones follow.
So now this market has taken the spot light for whatever reason. And the new high is drawing attention. The question is what to do now if you are not in it? Don't let the fear of missing out distract you here. Risk is something we can control and profit is the outcome of effective risk management.
When a market makes a sudden move that seems dramatic, the first thing I do is zoom out and look at the bigger picture. Based on the most recent upswing, there is a .382 support at the 53 level, and
.618 from the 49 to 46 levels. Since these are proportional to the larger magnitude price moves, they are significant moving forward, especially when observed through .
In terms of wave counts, the current high places this market in a subdegree Wave 3 of a larger 5. Also 5 subwaves can be counted within this 3, which means there is more of a chance that it is complete. It also means this is a higher risk area to buy, for those who are struggling with the fear of missing out. Keep in mind, helps to provide a process to weigh probabilities, and is not an absolute prediction. It is possible that the market continues without much pull back, it is just that the current count does not favor such an outcome.
After a Wave 3 completion, comes the Wave 4 retrace which as we all experienced with ETH, can be tough to sit through. Based on the current price structure, the most opportune level for Wave 4 to bottom is the 53 support because it would not overlap Wave 1. That is the first level to look for reversals and eventual development of subwave 5 of 5 which can take this market to the 70 to 74 area (1.618 and 1.0 extensions of previous Wave 1s).
If the 53 support is broken, then the 49 to 46 area is next to watch for, but a retrace to this area will alter the wave count and put this market back into the consolidation category.
I like this market because it is low priced and generally stable, just a little too slow at times. My plan is to wait for a retest of the 53 area and look for reversal patterns to enter a position that carries low risk. If this market is going to be strong in the long run, it will provide plenty of opportunities to get involved at good prices. I have no problem waiting.
Comments and questions welcome.
Here's a list of reasons I like Litecoin:
Capable of eight times as many transactions as Bitcoin in a ten minute period. Frankly if payment processors had adopted Litecoin in the past year current Bitcoin block discussions would be irrelevant (and likely the price of both coins higher). Anyone who has watched these discussions understands the immediate advantage of a network with larger transactional capability.
Faster confirmation times. The only people who don't think this is important have never spent a single coin or they have patience that the average person does not possess.
Blocks are not full.
The faster block time of litecoin reduces the risk of double spending attacks.
Fast well established network. Current Hashrate is 7,153 GH/s. Since scrypt is memory intensive it is known to be approximately 1000 times slower hardware wise in comparison to SHA256. Fair comparison to the Bitcoin network requires multiplying that hashrate by 1000 (7,153TH/s). The fact is for most of Litecoins history the hashrate has been relatively high and secure. Those comparing it to the Bitcoin network without considering this 1k factor are either being disingenuous or just ignorant of the facts.
Continuous development look here at number of releases in past few years: https://github.com/litecoin-project/litecoin/releases
Upcoming new features and active development look here for whats happening in 2017: https://litecoincore.org/
Longevity. Many coins have temporarily eclipsed litecoin as they were marketed for the purpose of increasing the fiat accounts of a small group and emptying the accounts of new users. Unfortunately this has been detrimental to crypto-space in general.
Great community. Definitly helps when consensus is needed.
Unlike bitcoin, it is possible to make changes to litecoin.
Fully supported by GoCoin a growing merchant payment processor used by thousands of merchants https://www.gocoin.com/ as well as other processors such as coinpayments, Asmoney, Alfacoins and Coinify.
Liquidity. You can sell thousands and not crash the market. Maintains value. Look at the chart here indicating volume in the last 24 hours relative to other coins http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/litecoin/#markets in fact volume has remained high month after month for years.
The speed, liquidity and value of Litecoin is useful to traders seeking arbitrage opportunities between exchanges.
Now on coinbase and will be on bitstamp in June.
Fair release. In a crypto world of premined and ICO releases many appreciate this fact. The code was released well before the Genesis block was mined and everyone knew when it would be going live; therefore, individuals could anticipate and get their miners and software ready.
It's primary function is to be a cryptocurrency.
Still mineable in many western countries even after electrical costs are factored in. Here in Canada my Titans still make a profit long after shutting my Neptunes down.
Many low value coins can be merge mined with it increasing profits for miners.
It will always maintain the integrity of the blockchain (no hard forks for special interests).
Recently activated segwit on it's network with virtually 100 percent consensus.
The possibility of utilizing sidechains for smart contracts without the possibility of corrupting the original non-turing complete blockchain.
Potential of using the Lightning Network as a method of increasing transactional capacity.
Some fundamental background now that both BTC and LTC Segwits are completed.
I agree with your sector rotation idea. Apart from the above fundamental even without doing TA I was expecting that move and bought LTC at 46 just due to the sector rotation. First went Dash, then Monero, ZEC may be going further up, so LTC should have been coming as well.