LTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Breakout But Lookout.

LTCUSD Update: Bullish breakout confirms strength and opens the door to the proportional target zone of the 70 to 74 area, while new support levels provide attractive reference points to buy.

This market has been a mystery to me because while BTC and ETH were making impressive moves, this market stayed quiet. That kind of behavior is always suspect because often it is a sign of relative weakness, but these coins obviously cannot be compared that way. As I have written about when comparing ETH and BTC, these markets emulate more of a sector rotation behavior meaning order flow is selective and favors one market over another as opposed to follow the leader where one market goes and the smaller ones follow.

So now this market has taken the spot light for whatever reason. And the new high is drawing attention. The question is what to do now if you are not in it? Don't let the fear of missing out distract you here. Risk is something we can control and profit is the outcome of effective risk management.

When a market makes a sudden move that seems dramatic, the first thing I do is zoom out and look at the bigger picture. Based on the most recent upswing, there is a .382 support at the 53 level, and
.618 support zone from the 49 to 46 levels. Since these are proportional to the larger magnitude price moves, they are significant moving forward, especially when observed through Elliott Wave.

In terms of wave counts, the current high places this market in a subdegree Wave 3 of a larger 5. Also 5 subwaves can be counted within this 3, which means there is more of a chance that it is complete. It also means this is a higher risk area to buy, for those who are struggling with the fear of missing out. Keep in mind, Elliott Wave helps to provide a process to weigh probabilities, and is not an absolute prediction. It is possible that the market continues without much pull back, it is just that the current count does not favor such an outcome.

After a Wave 3 completion, comes the Wave 4 retrace which as we all experienced with ETH, can be tough to sit through. Based on the current price structure, the most opportune level for Wave 4 to bottom is the 53 support because it would not overlap Wave 1. That is the first level to look for bullish reversals and eventual development of subwave 5 of 5 which can take this market to the 70 to 74 area (1.618 and 1.0 extensions of previous Wave 1s).

If the 53 support is broken, then the 49 to 46 area is next to watch for, but a retrace to this area will alter the wave count and put this market back into the consolidation category.

I like this market because it is low priced and generally stable, just a little too slow at times. My plan is to wait for a retest of the 53 area and look for reversal patterns to enter a position that carries low risk. If this market is going to be strong in the long run, it will provide plenty of opportunities to get involved at good prices. I have no problem waiting.

Comments and questions welcome.