Today I am giving ETH a break since my previous analysis still holds and is low. Not expecting much change in ETH until Tuesday. Since I follow LTCUSD , and others mentioned they would like to see an evaluation, here it is.
Looking at this market from a broader perspective, it is clearly made up of higher lows and higher highs. The major supports that keep this outlook intact are the 35 level (.382) and the 23 level (relative to .618). A break and follow through below 35 will change this from to neutral and will more than likely signal further consolidation. IF price breaks below 23 (anything can happen!) then this market has much bigger problems and I would stay away from buying it until price presents some renewed stability. As long as price holds above 35, this market has a better chance of pushing back up toward the 55 high and beyond.
Any signs of reversal between 40 and 35 offer attractive reward to risk and this is the area I will be watching, on and after 8/1. I do not plan to take any trades until after that date for obvious reasons.
In terms of Wave count, 4 waves can be clearly defined on the largest magnitude. This is a great structure because Wave 5 tends to be the most predictable in my opinion. Corrective waves are labeled with letters and presently, this market is in a Wave C of 4. Finding support in the 39 to 38 area would be a good place to complete the C wave since this minor support is relative to the .618 of the recent minor upswing. If the market likes the events that unfold on 8/1, that can be the catalyst that sparks the beginning of Wave 5.
In terms of resistance, besides the 55 high, there is the 47 to 51 area which is the .618 of the recent swing. This level is minor and serves as a good short term target to lock in some profit, but in light of the broader structure, I would expect this level to be taken out if price retests it.
In summary, this market is clearly in structure and appears to be setting up for a swing toward the highs. There needs to be a strong catalyst and 8/1 has the potential to provide it. Also keep in mind that as technically strong as this market looks, surprise fundamental effects cannot be anticipated technically and 8/1 can generate an adverse reaction as well. It is this uncertainty that is holding all these markets back at the moment. As price action traders all we can do is evaluate what the market has done, compare it to what it is doing now, and form a reasonable expectation based on the principles of .
Comments and questions welcome.