LTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Sitting On Support Zone.

BITFINEX:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
LTCUSD Update: Major bullish trend still intact as long as the 35 support level (.382 of major trend) holds. My wave count puts this current swing into a Wave C of 4, which means there is plenty of potential for a Wave 5 to take this market beyond the 55 high.

Today I am giving ETH a break since my previous analysis still holds and volume is low. Not expecting much change in ETH until Tuesday. Since I follow LTCUSD , and others mentioned they would like to see an evaluation, here it is.

Looking at this market from a broader perspective, it is clearly made up of higher lows and higher highs. The major supports that keep this outlook intact are the 35 level (.382) and the 23 level (relative to .618). A break and follow through below 35 will change this from bullish to neutral and will more than likely signal further consolidation. IF price breaks below 23 (anything can happen!) then this market has much bigger problems and I would stay away from buying it until price presents some renewed stability. As long as price holds above 35, this market has a better chance of pushing back up toward the 55 high and beyond.

Any signs of reversal between 40 and 35 offer attractive reward to risk and this is the area I will be watching, on and after 8/1. I do not plan to take any trades until after that date for obvious reasons.

In terms of Wave count, 4 waves can be clearly defined on the largest magnitude. This is a great structure because Wave 5 tends to be the most predictable in my opinion. Corrective waves are labeled with letters and presently, this market is in a Wave C of 4. Finding support in the 39 to 38 area would be a good place to complete the C wave since this minor support is relative to the .618 of the recent minor upswing. If the market likes the events that unfold on 8/1, that can be the catalyst that sparks the beginning of Wave 5.

In terms of resistance, besides the 55 high, there is the 47 to 51 area which is the .618 of the recent bearish swing. This level is minor and serves as a good short term target to lock in some profit, but in light of the broader bullish structure, I would expect this level to be taken out if price retests it.

In summary, this market is clearly bullish in structure and appears to be setting up for a swing toward the highs. There needs to be a strong catalyst and 8/1 has the potential to provide it. Also keep in mind that as technically strong as this market looks, surprise fundamental effects cannot be anticipated technically and 8/1 can generate an adverse reaction as well. It is this uncertainty that is holding all these markets back at the moment. As price action traders all we can do is evaluate what the market has done, compare it to what it is doing now, and form a reasonable expectation based on the principles of technical analysis .

Comments and questions welcome.

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@MarcPMarkets Thanks for the update! What do you think about the potential H&S?
+3 Reply
MarcPMarkets view_trade
@view_trade, I was looking at that, but there are two reasons why I didn't bother mentioning it: First, it is not active since the baseline (35) needs to be penetrated, and second, the major trend is bullish, and from my experience, bearish reversal patterns carry much less weight in a bullish context. I have been hammered many times shorting these type of reversals.
+2 Reply
view_trade MarcPMarkets
@MarcPMarkets, Thanks! Does that mean you're not worried about the potential Double Top in BTC either?
MarcPMarkets view_trade
@view_trade, I'm not worried about the double top in BTC either. Underlying trend structure is bullish and outweighs the double top.
+1 Reply
THX; Great explanation; I like your analysis and this LTC
+1 Reply
@Jour, You're welcome. Glad you like it.
I have allocated a small portion of fiat at 38 - 40 buy range. Fiat that I am comfortable enough trading at a loss. I still have a good feeling about Aug 1st. BTC update have been the topic for the past couple of years. This move by the BTC community won't be executed unless the technical of the coin can be updated. I am confident enough to believe this is not the end or the major downturn for the Crypto market. We are talking about a 100billion market here, not some IPO/ ICOs. (Fundamentally speaking). Every trade here that I place is geared towards Fundamentals over technical. Although, I prefer trading base off of technicalities, looking at charts, volume, percents, etc... But this particular trade is far from it, if I can put a number on it, I would say 60 - 70 or maybe even 80% fundamentals over technical on this trade.. If this whole BTC Aug 1st ended up being a farce. I will trend in the downtrend pattern while holding long positions. What are your thoughts?
MarcPMarkets unitednoobies
@unitednoobies, I think the event on 8/1 is total drama. Just a reason for the market to have something to worry about. I can understand your fundamental reasoning for this market and some of the other large cap currencies have strong fundamental merit. I believe this technology, along with the IOT are the future of the internet and they will become more relevant in the years to come. It will become more obvious as it moves into mainstream adoption which is a relatively slow process.
+2 Reply
Thanks for sharing this. I think LTC could increase quite significantly in this near future. Considering how BTC will have some confirmation/technical problem for sending during and after 1 August, many people I predict will switch to LTC for doing most transaction. Since LTC is quick, and priced reasonably well. We'll see :) Good luck.
@nafnar, yes it will be interesting to see if BTC can scale and be the transaction technology of choice or not. There are plenty of alternatives, LTC certainly is one. Fundamentally the key driver will be if developers continue to build on top of BTC or a more competitive technology. There are plenty to choose from.
+2 Reply
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