Just like $BTC, $LTC is in a descending or contracting triangle. As with the other count, we want to see that the pivot low holds. The 3 wave structure of each ABCDE leg is the biggest tell.
What's interesting about these triangles is that they most often occur either in Wave B or Wave 4 of a larger count. In this case, Wave 4 suggests we still have a large bull run Wave 5 to come.
What's interesting about these triangles is that they most often occur either in Wave B or Wave 4 of a larger count. In this case, Wave 4 suggests we still have a large bull run Wave 5 to come.
Comment:
*made it out
Comment:
After more evaluation, I believe a we do have a WXY here, which means the Wave 4 ABCDE is still highly probable.
You can read about my explanation on my $BTC chart, but I believe this is the correct count (ignore my previous two updates), for these reasons:
1) The Wave 1, 2 in yellow and the Wave 1, 2 in pink are not 5 wave structures. It's possible to force a 5 wave count, but the obvious count is a 3 wave.
2) Wave 2 in pink actually breaks the Wave 1 low by a few cents. This is an invalidation of EW rules. We are in a leveraged market but price moves with extraordinary accuracy. This is too big of a slip up to just ignore.
3) The structures of the Wave 3 and start of Wave 5 in pink show some particular characteristics. First, the Wave 3 5 wave impulse is a diagonal - an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals appear in C or Wave 5 position, not in Wave 3. Again, you could force a conventional count, but the obvious count is that it's a diagonal.
4) The Wave 1 subwave of the start of Wave 5 stands out from the rest of the wave structure. You can see it's abnormally tall. Not only that, but the structure looks like a 3 wave. Again, you can force a conventional count, but the obvious count is 3 wave.
Given all these factors, a WXY of two connected ABCs makes the most sense. This is what the evidence is telling me and it satisfies all of the above issues.
You can read about my explanation on my $BTC chart, but I believe this is the correct count (ignore my previous two updates), for these reasons:
1) The Wave 1, 2 in yellow and the Wave 1, 2 in pink are not 5 wave structures. It's possible to force a 5 wave count, but the obvious count is a 3 wave.
2) Wave 2 in pink actually breaks the Wave 1 low by a few cents. This is an invalidation of EW rules. We are in a leveraged market but price moves with extraordinary accuracy. This is too big of a slip up to just ignore.
3) The structures of the Wave 3 and start of Wave 5 in pink show some particular characteristics. First, the Wave 3 5 wave impulse is a diagonal - an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals appear in C or Wave 5 position, not in Wave 3. Again, you could force a conventional count, but the obvious count is that it's a diagonal.
4) The Wave 1 subwave of the start of Wave 5 stands out from the rest of the wave structure. You can see it's abnormally tall. Not only that, but the structure looks like a 3 wave. Again, you can force a conventional count, but the obvious count is 3 wave.
Given all these factors, a WXY of two connected ABCs makes the most sense. This is what the evidence is telling me and it satisfies all of the above issues.
I want to note that $BTC made it would of the triangle ABCDE. This combined with the bullishness of the market, may mean that a triangle correction is off the table.
Examining $LTC, I also find a 1.618 extension shifting the odds in favor of a Wave 1, 2, 3 being put in looking for a Wave 4 and 5.
This would imply a bullish retracement around 0,386 and invalidate this idea here. The key will be to see if $BTC falls back within the triangle and is able to find support or not.
Personally, it would make sense and I would feel better if $BTC went through with an ABCDE correction. It would give us more time for sentiment to change.