A few days ago I posted my ABCDE corrections on $BTC and $LTC:
While those corrections are still in play, I want to acknowledge the possibility of another count. Triangles most often occur in a Wave 4, but due to the current depth of our retracement, it seems that we likely already had Waves 1-5 in the current cycle. That means the supercycle is looking for a Wave 2, not a Wave 4, correction. While triangles can occur in a Wave 2, it is more common for them to occur in a Wave 4 as a shallow correction. A Wave 2 correction is commonly a deep correction and takes on the form of a ABC or WXY.
If the correction we are looking for is not a triangle, then it is likely to be either an ABC or WXY. The current structure suggests WXY to me with WX complete looking for Y. Common fib targets for WX to Y are 0.618, 1.0, and 1.236.
Furthermore, although we hit 0.618 in the initial Wave W (ABC), it was not enough to start the bull run, and we continued to correct. This suggests that we need to go deeper to 0.786 ($5K) or 0.887 ($3K).
Extrapolating the larger WXY extension and internal WXY, we find that 0.887 ($3K) is the level with the most confluence.
Short-term, we are still expecting a bounce up to the current downtrend line (~$8.5K). Most likely, we will again fail to break this line - otherwise both my ABCDE and WXY corrections will becoming invalidated. After being rejected from the downtrend line, if we make it back to the bottom of the pivot ($5.8K) instead of seeing a truncated Wave E, we are likely in a WXY and will break the previous pivot low at $5.8K and look for $5K or $3K.
While those corrections are still in play, I want to acknowledge the possibility of another count. Triangles most often occur in a Wave 4, but due to the current depth of our retracement, it seems that we likely already had Waves 1-5 in the current cycle. That means the supercycle is looking for a Wave 2, not a Wave 4, correction. While triangles can occur in a Wave 2, it is more common for them to occur in a Wave 4 as a shallow correction. A Wave 2 correction is commonly a deep correction and takes on the form of a ABC or WXY.
If the correction we are looking for is not a triangle, then it is likely to be either an ABC or WXY. The current structure suggests WXY to me with WX complete looking for Y. Common fib targets for WX to Y are 0.618, 1.0, and 1.236.
Furthermore, although we hit 0.618 in the initial Wave W (ABC), it was not enough to start the bull run, and we continued to correct. This suggests that we need to go deeper to 0.786 ($5K) or 0.887 ($3K).
Extrapolating the larger WXY extension and internal WXY, we find that 0.887 ($3K) is the level with the most confluence.
Short-term, we are still expecting a bounce up to the current downtrend line (~$8.5K). Most likely, we will again fail to break this line - otherwise both my ABCDE and WXY corrections will becoming invalidated. After being rejected from the downtrend line, if we make it back to the bottom of the pivot ($5.8K) instead of seeing a truncated Wave E, we are likely in a WXY and will break the previous pivot low at $5.8K and look for $5K or $3K.
Comment:
Apologies, I believe this is the unlikely possibility and that ABCDE (the original idea) is the more likely path. Bitstamp on log clearly shows we're on Wave 4.
