a weekly price action market recap and outlook - fx - eur/usd
Good evening and i hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
Bulls got their major trend reversal and i conclude the bear trend from the 2023-12 over. I drew my next best guess on how this new trend could play out. It’s a small trend inside a bigger trading range, so it will probably be choppy and weak. Bulls managed to trade above the daily 20ema and made it support, which trapped all bears who sold below 1.08, if bulls can keep the bullish gap open, this might fuel the rally faster up to 1.092 as it’s first target.
Bears closed the gap early but failed at 1.08 which turned support it seems, at least for now. I adjusted my w5 series slightly price and time wise but not much. W2 was deeper than expected but inside acceptable range for a pullback.
bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week.
bear case: Bears closed the bullish gap but failed to print below 1.08 and the best they can hope for is to stay inside the given range above. Bears had 4 good pushes down from 2023-12 to 2024-02 and i don’t think they want to die on that hill below 1.09. More will probably show up around that price and definitely at 1.1.
outlook last week: “up - but invalid below 1.08m then we move more sideways first (bull gap close - see chart)“
→ Last Friday we traded 1.0860 and now we are at 1.0860. Funny eh. Good outlook i guess. Market acted as expected and i keep leaning bullish.
short term: up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low)
medium-long term: sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 until bigger breakout
Quote from last week:
Bulls got their major trend reversal and i conclude the bear trend from the 2023-12 over. I drew my next best guess on how this new trend could play out. It’s a small trend inside a bigger trading range, so it will probably be choppy and weak. Bulls managed to trade above the daily 20ema and made it support, which trapped all bears who sold below 1.08, if bulls can keep the bullish gap open, this might fuel the rally faster up to 1.092 as it’s first target.
Bears closed the gap early but failed at 1.08 which turned support it seems, at least for now. I adjusted my w5 series slightly price and time wise but not much. W2 was deeper than expected but inside acceptable range for a pullback.
bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week.
bear case: Bears closed the bullish gap but failed to print below 1.08 and the best they can hope for is to stay inside the given range above. Bears had 4 good pushes down from 2023-12 to 2024-02 and i don’t think they want to die on that hill below 1.09. More will probably show up around that price and definitely at 1.1.
outlook last week: “up - but invalid below 1.08m then we move more sideways first (bull gap close - see chart)“
→ Last Friday we traded 1.0860 and now we are at 1.0860. Funny eh. Good outlook i guess. Market acted as expected and i keep leaning bullish.
short term: up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low)
medium-long term: sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 until bigger breakout
