vitalalyt

Marriott - Opportunity for 50% Short Trade?

Short
NASDAQ:MAR   Marriott International
Given the poor performance of MAR business in 2020 and 2021 associated with lockdowns and geopolitical risks that may worsen revenue flows is it time to short this stock?
Let's look at it in more detail.

Fundamental indicators:
  • Revenue and Profits - not consistent long-term earnings growth over the past 10 years, 2020 and 2021 have seen dramatic drop in revenue
  • Profit margin - average 7-9%, but there was profit loss in 2021
  • P/E - extremely high with 36x ratio
  • Liabilities - historically high debt to equity ratio which may hurt with increasing interest rates

Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
  • Following the sharp correction of March 2020 shares of MAR have enjoyed considerable growth. However, this bull run is difficult to associate with an impulse like structure
  • Hence it is more likely to be wave X of a Running Correction
  • Since the peak in April 2022 we can observe an initial impulse developing to the downside which is likely to be wave A of a zigzag, or first wave of an impulse
  • Looking at the lower timeframe we can still expect waves 4 and 5 to complete this impulse before an upward correction
  • Given the next earning report is scheduled for August 2022 and the risks associated with business in Russia it may be possible that this report will be the trigger for sell off

What do you think about MAR and its short term prospects?
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves.

Thanks

In search of the optimal signals
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