October 4 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Low-Volume Area Below $3,320; High-Volume Area At $3,370; NDX, RUT, and SPX divergence.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with the S&P 500 retracing 50% of the sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Participants defended the low-volume area -- which denotes upside directional conviction -- below $3,320.
Most notable was what happened after Thursday’s failure to extend past responsive selling at the $3,370 high-volume ledge. The lack of conviction resolved itself in Friday's overnight liquidation on news that U.S. President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19, thus returning the market back into balance.
Defense of the low-volume area, alongside the development of low-excess highs during the U.S. cash session, suggests the potential for further upside. Auctioning through the low-volume area, however, may trigger downside follow-through, with the S&P 500 moving as far as the $3,198 swing low.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
ARK Invest CEO and CIO Catherine Wood suggested another stimulus bill would be released prior to the election, with Airlines being one major beneficiary. A problem with such a bill is that the economy has hit escape velocity and some of the stimulus included may not be necessary. bit.ly/33rFjoH
“We also, in terms of fiscal policy, hope that these policies are not going to get in the way of so-called creative destruction. What we mean by that is disruptive innovation tends to take off during difficult times. But, if companies and industries are being subsidized just to hang on a little longer, that’s probably not good for anyone.”
Simply put, Wood theorizes the government's stimulus of dying industries is a disservice, as it diverts resources to less productive areas of the economy.
Key Events:
Monday: Fed Barkin Speech, ISM Non-Manufacturing, Fed Evans Speech, Fed Bostic Speech.
Tuesday: Balance of Trade, Fed Chair Powell Speech, Fed Harker Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Fed Barkin Speech, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Kashkari Speech, Consumer Credit Change, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Evans Speech.
Thursday: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Fed Barkin Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech.
Friday: Wholesale Inventories.
Recent News:
U.S. election to supercharge structural trends, increased focus on sustainability. bit.ly/36xy1S3
Azerbaijan (Turkey-backed) and Armenia (close to Russia, Iran) conflict flares. bit.ly/30ww6JQ
If the president holds onto Florida, then the entire election grows far closer. bloom.bg/34lVPpv
The Treasury market’s size to outstrip dealer capacity to safely intermediate. bloom.bg/2GEpPVy
Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER) granted a London license after battle. reut.rs/33ra4ds
FAA Chief conducts two-hour evaluation of Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX. reut.rs/3njLoLA
Technology companies cozy up to Biden campaign with cash and connections. reut.rs/3ivyoik
U.S. auto sales stay on a path to recovery despite the tighter inventories. reut.rs/2SmYzxe
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) to move 787 production to South Carolina in 2021. reut.rs/2EYgVl1
Fed’s Kaplan says he wants to be careful about further quantitative easing. reut.rs/3isBWlB
U.S. job growth slows; nearly 4 million Americans permanently unemployed. reut.rs/2Gfj7Wb
Ford Motor Company’s (NYSE: F) auto sales recover on a demand pickup. reut.rs/34DkztF
Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER) logistics division has raised $500M. reut.rs/3ldeACc
House Speaker Pelosi says airline aid deal is near, asks for halt to job cuts. reut.rs/3lgQOW9
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports record deliveries, Model 3 underwhelms. reut.rs/3jy93Wo
Lawmakers pressure U.S. trade representatives to strike Taiwan trade deal. bit.ly/36wO1DS
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) cut price on Chinese Model 3 with CATL battery. bloom.bg/36usfRc
Wall Street is preparing its systems for the election trading surge, volatility. bloom.bg/3nfGEXn
The COVID-19 vaccines further along in clinical trials are hardest to deploy. bit.ly/34s89Ey
China’s support for infrastructure investment will aid the economic recovery. bit.ly/3l4r678
Structural shifts triggered by the pandemic to benefit a tech subsectors. bit.ly/33s15Zm
Senator McConnell cancels scheduled senate floor votes for two weeks. on.mktw.net/34rMtst
‘I wasn’t feeling so well. I feel much better now’: Trump’s address to America. on.mktw.net/3ligtxL
China’s economic recovery from the pandemic helps drive its stocks higher. on.wsj.com/30yunDU
COVID-19 will lead to lasting behavioural changes in consumption and work. bit.ly/2F0bPVB
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 26.2% Bullish, 30.7% Neutral, 43.1% Bearish as of 9/30/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 921,593,487 as of 10/2/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 44.7% as of 10/2/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
Gold (GC):
Crude Oil (CL):
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Low-Volume Area Below $3,320; High-Volume Area At $3,370; NDX, RUT, and SPX divergence.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with the S&P 500 retracing 50% of the sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Participants defended the low-volume area -- which denotes upside directional conviction -- below $3,320.
Most notable was what happened after Thursday’s failure to extend past responsive selling at the $3,370 high-volume ledge. The lack of conviction resolved itself in Friday's overnight liquidation on news that U.S. President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19, thus returning the market back into balance.
Defense of the low-volume area, alongside the development of low-excess highs during the U.S. cash session, suggests the potential for further upside. Auctioning through the low-volume area, however, may trigger downside follow-through, with the S&P 500 moving as far as the $3,198 swing low.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
ARK Invest CEO and CIO Catherine Wood suggested another stimulus bill would be released prior to the election, with Airlines being one major beneficiary. A problem with such a bill is that the economy has hit escape velocity and some of the stimulus included may not be necessary. bit.ly/33rFjoH
“We also, in terms of fiscal policy, hope that these policies are not going to get in the way of so-called creative destruction. What we mean by that is disruptive innovation tends to take off during difficult times. But, if companies and industries are being subsidized just to hang on a little longer, that’s probably not good for anyone.”
Simply put, Wood theorizes the government's stimulus of dying industries is a disservice, as it diverts resources to less productive areas of the economy.
Key Events:
Monday: Fed Barkin Speech, ISM Non-Manufacturing, Fed Evans Speech, Fed Bostic Speech.
Tuesday: Balance of Trade, Fed Chair Powell Speech, Fed Harker Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Fed Barkin Speech, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Kashkari Speech, Consumer Credit Change, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Evans Speech.
Thursday: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Fed Barkin Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech.
Friday: Wholesale Inventories.
Recent News:
U.S. election to supercharge structural trends, increased focus on sustainability. bit.ly/36xy1S3
Azerbaijan (Turkey-backed) and Armenia (close to Russia, Iran) conflict flares. bit.ly/30ww6JQ
If the president holds onto Florida, then the entire election grows far closer. bloom.bg/34lVPpv
The Treasury market’s size to outstrip dealer capacity to safely intermediate. bloom.bg/2GEpPVy
Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER) granted a London license after battle. reut.rs/33ra4ds
FAA Chief conducts two-hour evaluation of Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) 737 MAX. reut.rs/3njLoLA
Technology companies cozy up to Biden campaign with cash and connections. reut.rs/3ivyoik
U.S. auto sales stay on a path to recovery despite the tighter inventories. reut.rs/2SmYzxe
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) to move 787 production to South Carolina in 2021. reut.rs/2EYgVl1
Fed’s Kaplan says he wants to be careful about further quantitative easing. reut.rs/3isBWlB
U.S. job growth slows; nearly 4 million Americans permanently unemployed. reut.rs/2Gfj7Wb
Ford Motor Company’s (NYSE: F) auto sales recover on a demand pickup. reut.rs/34DkztF
Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER) logistics division has raised $500M. reut.rs/3ldeACc
House Speaker Pelosi says airline aid deal is near, asks for halt to job cuts. reut.rs/3lgQOW9
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports record deliveries, Model 3 underwhelms. reut.rs/3jy93Wo
Lawmakers pressure U.S. trade representatives to strike Taiwan trade deal. bit.ly/36wO1DS
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) cut price on Chinese Model 3 with CATL battery. bloom.bg/36usfRc
Wall Street is preparing its systems for the election trading surge, volatility. bloom.bg/3nfGEXn
The COVID-19 vaccines further along in clinical trials are hardest to deploy. bit.ly/34s89Ey
China’s support for infrastructure investment will aid the economic recovery. bit.ly/3l4r678
Structural shifts triggered by the pandemic to benefit a tech subsectors. bit.ly/33s15Zm
Senator McConnell cancels scheduled senate floor votes for two weeks. on.mktw.net/34rMtst
‘I wasn’t feeling so well. I feel much better now’: Trump’s address to America. on.mktw.net/3ligtxL
China’s economic recovery from the pandemic helps drive its stocks higher. on.wsj.com/30yunDU
COVID-19 will lead to lasting behavioural changes in consumption and work. bit.ly/2F0bPVB
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 26.2% Bullish, 30.7% Neutral, 43.1% Bearish as of 9/30/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 921,593,487 as of 10/2/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 44.7% as of 10/2/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Comment:
In case the main chart is cut off, here is a supplementary image.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
