NAS100: 2018 vs. Today

They say history doesn't exactly repeat itself but it often rhymes. There are certainly similarities between the situation right now vs. 2018 but a huge lot of differences as well; in-fact probably more differences than similarities. Nevertheless, good to outline both NAS100 charts and overlay 2018 price action then you can make of it as you wish. Measured moves start from October 1, 2018 ATH all the way to the new highs of April 2019 before pulling back vs. November 21, 2021 ATH until today.

2018/2019: Bleeding stopped at June 2017 resistance, flushing out almost 16 months of gains.

2021/2022: Until today, bleeding took a pause at the February 2021 resistance, flushing out 9 months of gains.

What do you see happening next?

Comment:

Are treasury yields the leading indicator everyone claims them to be? A lot of yield gurus started showing up after Feb. 2021 mimicking everything the media's been feeding them, so here's a chart just incase you're baffled why we're not making new lows since January 24 while the US2Y and US10Y are on crack (US2Y is up 15% just today as we speak). You'll be surprised to see that in 2017/2018 stocks and yields were not only rising together, but also started dumping TOGETHER until the week of Dec. 24 where they went in opposite directions.
NAS100 to the left, US10Y to the right, and the vertical lines mark the week of Oct. 1, 2018 and the week of Dec. 24, 2018.

Comment:

By this time in 2018 we were already in the 2nd week of early recovery but no signs of settling down in 2022 just yet. 2018 was driven by rate hikes & China trade war whilst this year is driven by the same rate hikes and the potential Russia/Ukraine war :) Where next? Are we going a few percentage points deeper or is this the final bear run?