Is the Coronavirus Now a Pandemic? Is a Black Swan Looming?
This is only just an idea and food for thought. This will not necessarily happen by any means, but at the very least, investors should refrain from buying any dip until the virus is contained.
Sometimes symmetry can play an important part in deciphering the noise. A few weeks ago I said momentum stocks could lose up to 30% before the start of the Spring - this seems inevitable at this point. Now with that said, CDC has already said (as of today) that businesses in the US should BEGIN preparation for a widespread surge in cases; the number of cases ticked up today to 53 or so in the US.
I would not be entirely surprised to see a symmetrical drop similar to that of Christmas 2018 except inverted, before a major relief rally in the Summer before ultimately plummeting down in Q1 or Q2 in 2021.
The good news is that I highly doubt no matter how far we fall here that the bull run is over at this point. Central banks have rates to drop and more money to print before inflation can possibly increase to some epic level.
Again, this is simply food for thought. This may happen and it may not. It all rests of how serious the coronavirus is and how it impacts global growth.
- zSplit
Sometimes symmetry can play an important part in deciphering the noise. A few weeks ago I said momentum stocks could lose up to 30% before the start of the Spring - this seems inevitable at this point. Now with that said, CDC has already said (as of today) that businesses in the US should BEGIN preparation for a widespread surge in cases; the number of cases ticked up today to 53 or so in the US.
I would not be entirely surprised to see a symmetrical drop similar to that of Christmas 2018 except inverted, before a major relief rally in the Summer before ultimately plummeting down in Q1 or Q2 in 2021.
The good news is that I highly doubt no matter how far we fall here that the bull run is over at this point. Central banks have rates to drop and more money to print before inflation can possibly increase to some epic level.
Again, this is simply food for thought. This may happen and it may not. It all rests of how serious the coronavirus is and how it impacts global growth.
- zSplit
