The closer the winter, the stronger Russia leverages against Europe become.
Main one being natural gas.
Europe imports 90% of it's gas and Russia was importing 40% of it. Prices were much cheaper than LNG since it was transferred through pipes.
Now, the biggest gas pipeline in Europe - Nord Stream is getting used by Russia as a weapon against European countries. By cutting supply to 20% of pipeline's power, Russia expects Europe to stop supporting Ukraine in it's attempt to defend the country. Surely, Russia plans to cut it completely in the near future when it will damage European economies the most.
Compare this year prices with 2021 and you will be terrified because it grew more than 10 times. And remember that during summer natural gas prices are the cheapest. As winter approaches and when Nord Stream will shut down completely we can easily double in price.
More than 25% of German businesses say they are considering temporary or complete shutdown. Already more than 8% of heavy industry in Germany were put on hold since factories stop being profitable because of increased manufacturing costs.
Bottom line: Fundamentally natural gas prices will grow and European economies will suffer.
By following fundamental analysis lets look at technical:
We updated historical highs, but that was false breakout. It's wise to look for continuation of bullish trend, that's why I draw 2 scenarios.
1. From current price we approach top of the false breakout and after some range push higher.
2. We will be in range for a couple days, using bottom trendline as support. Closer to the end of formation we will squeeze to the previous level and break through it.
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Main one being natural gas.
Europe imports 90% of it's gas and Russia was importing 40% of it. Prices were much cheaper than LNG since it was transferred through pipes.
Now, the biggest gas pipeline in Europe - Nord Stream is getting used by Russia as a weapon against European countries. By cutting supply to 20% of pipeline's power, Russia expects Europe to stop supporting Ukraine in it's attempt to defend the country. Surely, Russia plans to cut it completely in the near future when it will damage European economies the most.
Compare this year prices with 2021 and you will be terrified because it grew more than 10 times. And remember that during summer natural gas prices are the cheapest. As winter approaches and when Nord Stream will shut down completely we can easily double in price.
More than 25% of German businesses say they are considering temporary or complete shutdown. Already more than 8% of heavy industry in Germany were put on hold since factories stop being profitable because of increased manufacturing costs.
Bottom line: Fundamentally natural gas prices will grow and European economies will suffer.
By following fundamental analysis lets look at technical:
We updated historical highs, but that was false breakout. It's wise to look for continuation of bullish trend, that's why I draw 2 scenarios.
1. From current price we approach top of the false breakout and after some range push higher.
2. We will be in range for a couple days, using bottom trendline as support. Closer to the end of formation we will squeeze to the previous level and break through it.
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
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