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NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Rebounded on Feb 2021 Roll

Long
NYMEX:NG2!   HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: NEXT CONTRACT IN FRONT)
Natural Gas prices rebounded after dropping earlier in the week from $2.5 to $2.25 on warm weather. Prices rebounded on tight balances, oversold technical conditions,
and roll into February 2021 contract. Support is expected to hold, as LNG flows are above 11 Bcf/d and balances are tight, with last draw at -152 Bcf.

Technical Analysis: 4 Hr chart shows oversold condition. Support is seen at $2.25. However, double bottom is still possible, before going higher around January 10.
Potential price target for the next leg up is $2.75 - $2.8. Upside potential for NG and BOIL may be limited due to roll into lower March 2021 contract on January 22 -27.

Fundamental Analysis: Bullish picture with tight balances and potential for a deficit is possible going into 2021. Lower 48 state production lost -4 Bcf/d vs. 2020,
while gas exports increased +4 Bcf/d, resulting in net increase in demand of 8 Bcf/d. Lower 48 production is expected to remain at 91 Bcf/d, while LNG flows and
Mexico exports will total 16 Bcf/d. HFIR energy believes, that forward curve is underpriced at avg . of $2.58/MMBtu. Should weather turn colder after January 11, 2021,
as projected by NatGasWeather, we may see NG prices bounce back to $2.7-$2.8 levels. Cash prices are likely to go much higher during winter. However, NG and BOIL,
will start rolling into lower March contract around January 22 -27, which may bring futures prices back to their current support level at $2.3-$2.5 at that time.
Overall picture for NG in 2021 is bullish , given lower production and higher LNG demand and exports remain in place. Traders are bullish EQT and BOIL (day trade).
Short sellers will still have their opportunities on selling 4 Hr tops. KOLD is an inverse daily ETF , that does well during March - April contract timeframe.