In my trade log of July 29, I commented
The breakout has failed. I think NIFTY is likely to test other extremes -- retest of 11000 and 10900 initially.
This may not happen tomorrow as tomorrow is an expiry day. There may be another attempt towards 11270 which needs to be watched carefully.
Tomorrow I am more biased towards consolidation day.
Review
NIFTY is well on its touch of 10950-11000 range.
The attempt towards 11270, which I was monitoring failed. This prompted me to take trade early.
It looked a lot worse than consolidation day. NIFTY broke down marginally the range of 11110-11300.
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My Trades
The first hour trade was bullish as the opening range broke. But when there was no momentum towards 11300. I exited that at the target.
I was watching the triangular pattern that was getting formed, when it broke down, I bought 11200 PUT. I rarely buy PUTs. I bought PUTS for the next expiry to avoid time decay. And another reason to capture the entire move as I the support below was around 11150, 125 points below.
My observations for the day
NIFTY closed 11102, down -0.90%.
BANK NIFTY down -1.95%
VIX gained 2.55%
Advance Decline ratio is 13 to 37. Broader market showing 1:2 advance decline
Option data for new series showing range of 11000-11200.
FII and DII data neutral.
NIFTY created an important pattern today, which is the intermediate term topping pattern. If this pattern holds, NIFTY won't be crossing 11140 tomorrow. And breakdown towards 11040 and then 11960 looks very likely. Option data also shows not much resistance expected till 11000.
My view
Tomorrow, I assume a downward bias with the possibility of 11040 and 11000. I’ll see the price action around this area to decide the next steps. If this is really some sort of intermediate top, there should be a gap down and the gap will be sustained for the day.
July 29 Post
The breakout has failed. I think NIFTY is likely to test other extremes -- retest of 11000 and 10900 initially.
This may not happen tomorrow as tomorrow is an expiry day. There may be another attempt towards 11270 which needs to be watched carefully.
Tomorrow I am more biased towards consolidation day.
Review
NIFTY is well on its touch of 10950-11000 range.
The attempt towards 11270, which I was monitoring failed. This prompted me to take trade early.
It looked a lot worse than consolidation day. NIFTY broke down marginally the range of 11110-11300.
===================================================================
My Trades
The first hour trade was bullish as the opening range broke. But when there was no momentum towards 11300. I exited that at the target.
I was watching the triangular pattern that was getting formed, when it broke down, I bought 11200 PUT. I rarely buy PUTs. I bought PUTS for the next expiry to avoid time decay. And another reason to capture the entire move as I the support below was around 11150, 125 points below.
My observations for the day
NIFTY closed 11102, down -0.90%.
BANK NIFTY down -1.95%
VIX gained 2.55%
Advance Decline ratio is 13 to 37. Broader market showing 1:2 advance decline
Option data for new series showing range of 11000-11200.
FII and DII data neutral.
NIFTY created an important pattern today, which is the intermediate term topping pattern. If this pattern holds, NIFTY won't be crossing 11140 tomorrow. And breakdown towards 11040 and then 11960 looks very likely. Option data also shows not much resistance expected till 11000.
My view
Tomorrow, I assume a downward bias with the possibility of 11040 and 11000. I’ll see the price action around this area to decide the next steps. If this is really some sort of intermediate top, there should be a gap down and the gap will be sustained for the day.
July 29 Post
