Indian economy is recovering rapidly after corona virus pandemic crash but rising crude oil prices and inflation is a issue of worry for Indian Equity Market.
Things agaisnt Indian Stock Market
Rising Crude Oil Prices
Crude Oil prices are at high of 3 years, after 2018 it is first that Brent crude crossed $ 85 mark on London Exchanges.
The shortage of Gas and Coal around the world is trigging demand of alternate energy option i.e. crude oil which is raising its price globaly.
Rising Price of Base Metal will lower industrial profit and may pull down industrial growth rate for the 3rd quarter.
Things in Favour
Export Boom Forex reserves rose by $2.04 billion to $639.52 billion in week ended october 8 accroding to RBI data.
Surge in Tax Revenue The government has collected Rs 1,17,010 crore GST for the month of September which is 23% higher than the same period last year. The average monthly gross GST collection for the second quarter of the current year has been Rs 1.15 lakh crore, which is 5% higher than the average monthly collection of Rs 1.10 lakh crore in the first quarter of the year.
Shrinking Pile of Bank NPAs : Indian public sector banks collectively owed approximately 6.17 trillion Indian rupees in non-performing assets in fiscal year 2021. against 7.5 trillion rupees in the 2019 fiscal year, indicating a slow but slight relief.
Optimistic Industrial Production Resulting, Indian indiaces have gained almost 30% this year in 2021
Booming Corporate Profits September quarter results will be in market very soon that will guide the further market directions. Recently Reality, Auto and Energy sector have been big gainers in last one year, since Sep 2020.
Continuing Economic Growth : India's 4 years average GDP growth will be around 3.6% against global average of 2.6%.
CONCLUSION
In my opinion, NIFTY may very soon give a signal for a short call, but you have to be very patient for that.
Things agaisnt Indian Stock Market
Rising Crude Oil Prices
Crude Oil prices are at high of 3 years, after 2018 it is first that Brent crude crossed $ 85 mark on London Exchanges.
The shortage of Gas and Coal around the world is trigging demand of alternate energy option i.e. crude oil which is raising its price globaly.
Rising Price of Base Metal will lower industrial profit and may pull down industrial growth rate for the 3rd quarter.
Things in Favour
Export Boom Forex reserves rose by $2.04 billion to $639.52 billion in week ended october 8 accroding to RBI data.
Surge in Tax Revenue The government has collected Rs 1,17,010 crore GST for the month of September which is 23% higher than the same period last year. The average monthly gross GST collection for the second quarter of the current year has been Rs 1.15 lakh crore, which is 5% higher than the average monthly collection of Rs 1.10 lakh crore in the first quarter of the year.
Shrinking Pile of Bank NPAs : Indian public sector banks collectively owed approximately 6.17 trillion Indian rupees in non-performing assets in fiscal year 2021. against 7.5 trillion rupees in the 2019 fiscal year, indicating a slow but slight relief.
Optimistic Industrial Production Resulting, Indian indiaces have gained almost 30% this year in 2021
Booming Corporate Profits September quarter results will be in market very soon that will guide the further market directions. Recently Reality, Auto and Energy sector have been big gainers in last one year, since Sep 2020.
Continuing Economic Growth : India's 4 years average GDP growth will be around 3.6% against global average of 2.6%.
CONCLUSION
In my opinion, NIFTY may very soon give a signal for a short call, but you have to be very patient for that.