NIFTY Hit our long-term target. What's next?

The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) gave us an excellent bottom buy opportunity last time we looked into it (November 03) and hit on Thursday our 21000 target (see chart below):


We've been receiving a lot of messages on what's next for this index. Well if we turn the Channel Up into the logarithmic scale, we can see that the price is almost on its Top (Higher Highs trend-line). The 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross and the 1D RSI is pulling back aggressively after being extremely overbought at 85.00.

Technically this is a sell signal and even though the shortest decline within the 18-month Channel Up has been -3.74%, we see more similarities with the September 13 2022 top, hence we will aim for the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 20500, initially at least, where contact should be made with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). If the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), we will short again and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 19300, which will also be a -11.03% decline, similar with the strongest one on March 20 2023.

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